Everyone is looking for an angle and we are no different here at SBR but we try to exploit the sharp sides and analyze historical betting trends. Let's see where history takes us and use it to cash in our NFL picks for Week 1.
Super Bowl Hangover
If you like NFL betting trends then I have a doozy for you. The Super Bowl runner-up from the previous year has gone 2-13 ATS in Week 1 over the past 15 seasons. In addition the combined points in those games have gone under the NFL odds posted total on 10 of 15 occasions. The conventional wisdom is that the losing Super Bowl team is still nursing the heartbreak of coming so close only to fall short.
However it should also be noted that these Super Bowl runner-ups don't necessarily lose the Week 1 game outright but simply do not cover the all-important spread. I mention this because there is another dynamic in play and that being the lofty expectations for a team that went further than 30 other teams and a public perception that this Super Bowl runner-up will want to atone for their season ending, soul crushing loss seven months prior.
This is why we do the research for you because oftentimes perception does not match reality particularly when it comes to betting NFL games against the spread. Obviously our immediate thought brings us to Seattle, loser of last season's Super Bowl, and who they are playing and what are the early NFL odds on their Week 1 contest. It just so happens the Seahawks are on the road and in the house of a divisional rival. The Seattle Seahawks opened as 4½ point road favorites over the St. Louis Rams. However word has apparently already spread about this Week 1 betting trend and the NFL odds now have the Seahawks at -3 (-125) in most of the major offshore sportsbooks like GTBets. If I were you I would hustle on over and plunk down a chunk on the Rams and in addition would use them in a two team teaser to hurdle that +3 through all the important numbers like four, six and seven ultimately getting this live dog at +9.
A Few Tidbits:
-Super Bowl Winners are 19-2 straight up and 12-9 ATS in season openers the following season. The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots are currently installed as three point betting favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game being held in Foxboro, Massachusetts. Of course the opening line of Patriots -6 has plummeted since the suspension of Tom Brady was announced but a federal court is arbitrating the merits and legality of the suspension so there is still a chance Brady may be suited up and under center in Week 1. In addition the Pittsburgh Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six season openers.
- The Atlanta Falcons are 12-5 ATS over the last 17 years in Week 1
- Under has cashed in 8 of the last 11 Indianapolis Colts' Week 1 contests.
- The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven season openers.
- Over has cashed in 9 of the last 12 Oakland Raiders' Week 1 contests.
- Under is 13-4-1 in Carolina's last 18 Week 1 games.
- The Detroit Lions are 9-3 ATS over their last 12 season openers.
- Over is 6-2 in Houston's last eight season openers.
- Under is 9-1 over the last 10 season openers when the Tennessee Titans are on the road. Tennessee visits Tampa Bay in their Week 1 appearance. The posted NFL odds total currently stands at 42.