Week 1 NFL Picks: Best Early Values As We Enter the Preseason

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, August 8, 2015 8:09 PM GMT

Saturday, Aug. 8, 2015 8:09 PM GMT

While most teams are trying to just get through camp without any major injuries, others are trying to get a first look at what their team will look like in the 2015 season. With that in mind, the Week 1 NFL odds could change a lot before we get to September, so here are some Week 1 values that I believe could be solid early camp value.

Packers vs. Bears
I went into this a little in the article I wrote about games that are getting the most action, but in his career Jay Cutler is 1-10 against the Packers. Even though this game is in Chicago, the Bears defense probably hasn’t solved all their issues from the last two seasons, and this is still the Packers. The NFL odds however are all over the place for this game. Pinnacle has the line at -5 in favor of the road Packers, while 5Dimes has the line all the way up to -7, but with +110 odds. However, what’s remarkable about it is that the line was only -3½ when it opened a few months ago. A lot of money, both public and sharp has come in on the Green Bay Packers, and that won’t slow down much now that we are a little more than a month from the game. This line could easily settle in the -6½ range in favor of Green Bay, so if you can get the -5 or even -5½ right now, it might be a solid investment.

My Pick: Packers -5 at Pinnacle

 

Colts vs. Bills
Now that I live in Indy, I hear all about the Indianapolis Colts. The hype machine is on for this team this season, but I’m not convinced just yet. Their defense still has some holes and the right side of their offensive lines has questions too. Match that up with a Bills defense under the instruction of Rex Ryan in their first game of the season, and the Colts might be in trouble here. I think this is going to be a close game, and as long as the Buffalo Bills can run the ball and play defense, I don’t frankly care who is under center for Buffalo. This one is a much bigger risk than the play above, however taking the points with Buffalo, or even the money line might be a solid play. The Bills were 9-7 ATS last season, but more importantly they were 5-3 ATS on the road.

My Pick: Bills +2½ at 5Dimes

 

Vikings vs. 49ers
For those of you who smartly bet the Minnesota Vikings' opening odds at +4½ against the San Francisco 49ers, I salute you. However, now that the line is down to -1½ or even -1, the value has firmly been bet out of this game for the moment. However, an early look at the total might be a profitable wager. At only 41 points, this game and the Browns and Jets Week 1 game on Sunday are the two lowest totals of Week 1. However, compared to Cleveland and New York, both of these teams have pretty high-octane offenses if all goes well in the next month. Both teams scoring 21 points is not that much to ask, especially because the 49ers took another hit defensively when Aldon Smith apparently lost his mind. This could be a high scoring Monday Night Football game, and the over looks like a good bet even though we’re still five weeks away from the game.

My Pick: Over 41 at Heritage

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