Week 1 NFL Pick Using 5-Team Accumulator: Parlay for Profit!

Kevin Stott

Thursday, August 6, 2015 3:04 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 6, 2015 3:04 PM GMT

Let's offer up a Sacrificial Parlay for NFL Week 1 games to the Gambling Gods in hopes of a profitable 2015/16 football season using three Prime Time TV games from the slate and two Sunday stalwarts.

Introduction
Are you ready? Well, are you? NFL football is officially back this weekend, when the Preseason officially gets underway with the Hall of Fame Game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Fawcett Stadium in Canton, Ohio on Sunday night (NBC, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT; Odds: Vikings -3, Total: 38, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). And in about a month from now on Sept. 10, the NFL Regular Season gets underway when the Pittsburgh Steelers face the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT). And here on the Week 1 betting board, the mission is to try to turn $20 into $356 and to try to also get that $20 back and attempt to have a little fun along the way. One potential problem here? The Steelers win in Gillette Stadium on Opening Night and the bet is going, going, gone...straight to the garbage can with the wet coffee grounds. Live large man. And we—me and the rubbery cat Louie—start 0-1 and down $20 and wondering why the first non-Futures Book NFL bet was a parlay. Why Lou? Because they’re fun, up until the point (maybe) that Niners QB Colin Kaepernick finds WR Torrey Smith in the end zone late in the 4th Quarter for a TD and a 27-20 San Francisco win and non-Vikings cover after winning the first 4 legs of the parlay (accumulator). But that’s just an expected part of the ride.

The older I get, the more I hope parlays with more than 4 legs (elements) lose right out of the gate as to avoid the massive built up Stress. And this baby could stretch from Thursday night to Monday night, meaning screaming and Pepto-Bismol may be involved should it live to see Monday. And if if does get there and the Eagles beat the Falcons in Atlanta in the Monday Night Football opener in the Georgia Dome, there is could be a potential to maybe create a Middle and will be a chance to Hedge with the 49ers-Vikings game later in the night, but first, it will be all about that Patriots-Steelers game and the reality that Tom Brady has now somehow surrounded us and is cropping up in ever facet of our lives. When it’s still Summer. And when a game hasn’t even been played. And with MLB races hotter than Death Valley. How do you think he does it?
Week 1 Parlay—(5Dimes odds, Wednesday, August 5)


Let’s get busy. Here’s the actual 5-team Parlay (Accumulator) for week  in the NFL, with $20 bet to return $356, almost an 18-to-1 return on your Money should everything go as planned. And it never does. Explanations will follow, and several of these games have already been written about and handicapped here in this space at Sportsbook Review with more details, but reasons why for everything will be detailed. Here’s the ticket:

 

New England Patriots M/L -158 over Pittsburgh Steelers (TNF)
Green Bay Packers -5 -115 over Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers -3 -145 over Jacksonville Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles PK -110 over Atlanta Falcons (MNF) 
Minnesota Vikings +2 -110 over San Francisco 49ers (MNF) 

>$20 wager to win $256

 

The New England Patriots (9/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365) have been the talk of the league all calendar year but for all the wrong reasons. Here, still with absolutely no idea in the NFL’s 4-game Suspension to Patriots QB Tom Brady will be held up and when it will be, is so, simply taking New England on the Moneyline (-158) seems wise as all you’re asking that first leg of the parlay to do is win at Home in the first game of the new season. If Jimmy Garoppolo starts in this Thursday affair on NBC, so be it. The Patriots were still 7-1 at Gillette Stadium last year with their only Loss in Week 17 in a game they cared little about. And much has been made of the Patriots possibly having to play without starting QB Brady for this game because of the potential Deflategate Suspension, but the reality right now is that Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell will definitely miss this NFL Regular Season lidlifter because of his Suspension and nobody knows if Brady will for sure.

In the second leg of the parlay, backing the Packers against the Bears and laying the 5 points and buying the half point and paying the -115 juice seems safe. True, the game is in Chicago at Soldier Field but Green Bay (+700 to win Super Bowl, Coral) smashed the Bears in both games last season (38-17, 55-14) and the Trends (Packers 8-1 ATS L9 vs Bears, 5-0 ATS L5 in Chicago) strongly point toward taking the Cheeseheads. This (Packers -5) will be my best straight bet pick for Week 1 also in a board trickier than it looks, despite having months to look at the actual numbers. And Green Bay could be Touchdown favorites or more by gameday.

The third NFL pick in the parlay is backing the Panthers (40/1 to win Super Bowl, Sky Bet) and buying 1 point to take the point spread down to -3 (-110) from its current -4 (-145) to avoid potentially losing on that Key Number. This is a parlay and there would be nothing worse than having it go poof! because Carolina beat the Jaguars by 3 in Jacksonville, knowing getting off the 3 was a possibility.

The fourth leg in the Parlay is on Monday (Sept. 14), and is the first game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader between the Falcons and Eagles from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET/4:10 p.m. PT). This game is a Pick ‘Em, so backing the Eagles and new Free Agent RB DeMarco Murray (Cowboys) is the choice here, with the thought that the Dirty Birds have little Homefield Advantage and that the NFC East may be a bit stronger than the NFC South, which saw all 4 members finish below the .500 mark. The Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS L14 vs the Falcons (40/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365).

And, in the final leg of this 5-teamer and the second game of the MNF doubleheader (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET/7:20 p.m. PT), it’s the Vikings at +2. Why? We all know how much the 49ers lost and playing at the 1-year-old Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara a good distance from San Francisco doesn’t carry the Homefield Advantage home venues usually do in the NFL. And the Minnesota Vikings will have RB Adrian Peterson back and with QB Teddy Bridgewater having a year of experience under his belt and a Defense that looks to be improved, the Vikings (66/1 to win Super Bowl, Sky Bet) may be able to win this game and probably think they will. And should the first 4 legs win and this be sitting with Minnesota in the 5th leg at +2, there will be a chance to Hedge by betting on the 49ers at -1 although no real Middle can be created unless the Vikings somehow become favorites here. So, this first attempt is made up of 4 Road teams, 3 nationally televised games and 3 games in which the point spread was toyed with (Patriots, Packers, Panthers) to actually give the ticket a chance of winning. And instead of looking at this as a bet with some chalks, chalks, chalks up top, this is probably best looked at as a recreational ride for $20 for maximum entertainment fading the Bears, Jaguars, Falcons and 49ers. And this one may end up being P-P-P and then pray, baby. Claro.

Week 1 NFL Pick Using 5-Team Accumulator (Parlay): New England Patriots M/L -158/Green Bay Packers -5 -115/Carolina Panthers -3 -145/Philadelphia Eagles PK -110/Minnesota Vikings +2 -110 (5Dimes)

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