Peter Loshak helps you place your Week 1 NFL picks with his weekly parlay. Find out where he feelse the best value lies and how he plans to set up the perfect football betting ticket this weekend.
NFL Week 1 is finally here, and it has brought to us much of what we know and love about setting up our NFL picks: ugly dogs, public-backed faves, big faves tempting us to tease them, and suspiciously low or high spreads.
The first thing that struck me about the info I found through the week is that the sharps were very high on Philly to start the year, betting them on all of their futures odds – Super Bowl, division, and conference – as well as various season-long props, including Sam Bradford for MVP.
This could prove to be a problem for the books with Philly’s game spreads, especially early in the season, because the public is likely to start off the year betting on the Eagles as well. Sharp action already reportedly came in early in the week on Philly this week against Atlanta, and they may still have line value currently at -3.
A number of underdogs have taken sharp action so far, including Oakland, Tennessee, and the Redskins, despite all their ongoing drama at QB.
And teams expected to be elite this year, to no one’s surprise, have been majorly backed by public betting action. The Packers are drawing overwhelming support as a road favorite of less than a touchdown at Chicago, and Dallas has gotten public backing, but as of right now, to a much lesser degree than Green Bay.
And Indianapolis, currently just a 2.5-point road favorite at Buffalo, has also taken overwhelming public action. The Indy game might be an interesting situation though, because sharp action did reportedly come in on the Colts on their various futures odds before the start of the season, and despite the big public money on the Colts in Week 1, no sharp action, as yet, has come in on the Bills. That could change on game day of course, and especially if the NFL odds move to 3. But as of now, the sharps haven’t yet seemed to view the Colts as overvalued by the market at all.
This week, I wound up deciding on 3 picks in my NFL parlay video for Week 1.