Week 1 Lines Getting The Most Action: Where is the Public Placing Their NFL Picks?

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, August 27, 2015 1:53 PM GMT

It’s been about a month since we last looked at Week 1 and the amount of money being wagered on the games, however, since then the NFL Odds have moved a lot, and there are new games and teams starting to garner some money. Here are the three most wagered games of Week 1 so far. 

Vikings vs. 49ers
Everyone has hammered this game since it opened a few months ago, and right now according to our Consensus Data, the Vikings have a lot of dough riding behind them for the final game of Week 1. Our data estimates that the average wager on his game is nearly $1000, which means the sharps have been hammering the Vikings. It shows in the line movement as well. Since these NFL Odds opened at -4 ½ in favor of the 49ers, the odds have shifted all the way down to a PK in some instances that favors Minnesota. Both teams are obviously trending in opposite directions this offseason, but the sportsbooks are all quickly becoming 49ers fans in Week 1. Just to put it in perspective, we estimate that this game has four times the amount of money on it than the next highest Week 1 contest.

Packers vs. Bears
Speaking of heavily bet games, everyone is jumping to back the Packers with their NFL picks, even with the Jordy Nelson injury. It’s probably because the Bears defense is still not great, and they are switching to a 3-4. This is going to create some problems, and if the Bears can’t generate a pass rush, the Packers are going to live up to all the money being wagered on them in Week 1. The NFL Odds for this one have swung with the money as well. The Bears opened as +3 ½ home dogs, and now are settling in as +6 ½ dogs. Green Bay is getting three out of every four dollars wagered on this game, and with Aaron Rodgers’ nearly flawless record against the Bears, it’s hard not to believe that Green Bay will cover here. These two games represent a huge portion of the money already wagered on Week 1.

Colts vs. Bills
Finally the Colts and Bills have been picking up steam over the last few weeks, and there is almost a good amount of money being placed into action on both sides of this game. I have gone on record saying I like the Bills here, but it seems like most of the money is finally on the Colts. However, the average bet is around the same on both teams, so obviously there is a split here amongst non-public bettors. However, I still think Buffalo as home dogs are the right side. The public is firmly on the Colts here, but the line has yet to move because of a steady stream of apparently sharp money. Don’t discount the Bills this season or in Week 1, because there is a segment of the betting community that is overlooking some of their injuries and QB battle, and looking at the value.