Week 1 Free NFL Picks: False Favorites & Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 2, 2014 9:07 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 2, 2014 9:07 PM UTC

We start a new feature here at SBR looking for the overvalued NFL favorites or underdogs who might have bite to beat the betting odds for NFL picks.

With each of these free picks, I will explain my reasoning why as an NFL football handicapper these plays are worth considering for sports picks. If you need street cred, I was No. 1 at Cappers Monitor in the NFL in 2013.

SBR Offers You Free NFL Picks for Week 1!

Redskins vs. Texans: Favored Houston Might Not Have What It Takes
Washington and Houston only won a total of five games last year. Both went in a different direction in search for new ideas from head coaches, hoping for a quick turnaround. The Texans on the surface have a lot pieces for get at or close to .500 after a dreadful 2-14 campaign.

But a closer look finds Andre Johnson and Arian Foster a year older and the injuries are mounting for both each passing year. The defense should be better not being placed in so many negative situations.

Yet, I cannot get over the fact Ryan Fitzpatrick is the Houston quarterback. This journeyman has moments for whatever team he plays for, but also buries them with an avalanche of mistakes.

Washington is no prize versus the NFL odds, but I look at Houston’s recent 0-8 ATS record as a favorite and have them as a false favorite.

NFL Overvalued Favorite: Houston

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Titans vs. Chiefs: Chiefs Spread Being Scalped by Football Bettors
Kansas City was 9-0 and the talk of the NFL last season as Andy Reid revitalized the Chiefs. Later, reality made a house call and K.C. closed 2-6 SU and 4-7 ATS overall.

While Reid has long established from his days in Philadelphia he does not give two toots about the preseason, a closer examination has football bettors thinking the Chiefs are closer talent-wise to the team that ended last year, compared to how they played early.

This is clearly viewed with Kansas City lowered from -5.5 to -3.5 at home against Tennessee, who has Ken Whisenhunt in his first-year in Nashville and adding new offensive and defense schemes.

With the line this low, no real value in backing the Titans, just understand the red-shirted Chiefs are an unseemly 5-19-1 ATS as home favorites the past seven seasons.

NFL Overvalued Favorite: Kansas City

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Giants vs. Lions: New York Could Spring a Giant Shocker
Sportsbooks and regulars working the NFL odds are not the least bit impressed with the New York football Giants. Their 5-0 preseason is considered a lark ans despite still managing to win seven games after an 0-6 start, they have been sent from +4 to +5.5 for the Monday night football opener in Detroit.

While I agree the Giants still have something to prove, what about Detroit, who is 16-27 SU since being 5-0 in 2011. These underachievers changed coaches and nobody is really sure if Jim Caldwell’s more laidback approach will light a fire to these less than cagey Lions.

These two NFC squads do not play often, but it is a strange series, with the road team 8-0 ATS, which includes six outright victories.

On the receiving end of this many points, I’ll take my chances.

NFL Underdog with Bite: New York Giants

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