There are several changes and outstanding questions about the Redskins as we get closer to training camp, however the biggest of all the questions are, “is Robert Griffin III healthy and back to his 2012 form?” Those questions will be answered very soon, but there could already be some incite on the subject, leading to value in the NFL Odds.
It’s almost time to stop all of the talk and start to see if Robert Griffin II is truly back to his old self after playing last season rushed back from ACL reconstruction. However literally every report (and by every it is impossible to find a report in the contrary) this summer out of Washington DC is that RG3 is fully healthy. Even back in April guys were touting that his workouts have made him look even better, and just a week ago there was video posted that saw Griffin make a nice pass on the move, and squat several hundred pounds six straight times. If running, jumping and squatting well over twice your body-weight doesn’t prove the knee is healthy, I’m not sure what will.
The last true step will be that first big hit he takes, but luckily as long as it isn’t dirty, the knee shouldn’t be too much in harms way. That being said, there are several other more pressing questions than RG3’s health, because at this point in the offseason, it has been all positive reports for the last three months.
Super Bowl (+5000)
It’s somewhat hard to believe that the Skins could win it all after a 3-13 season. They have a new head coach which could either play into our out of their hands early on in the season, but either way, in a conference that hosts three of the best four teams in the NFL, I sincerely doubt he Skins can get through the NFC and beat either the Broncos or Patriots. However lest we forget, the Redskins probably should have won their wildcard game against the Seahawks in 2012 after going up 14-0 early in the game, so anything is possible. But with a brand new scheme in DC, it’s farfetched.
Although their Super Bowl and NFC prices are likely not worth a wager, the NFL Odds from bovada do tell a story about how the sportsbooks are valuing the Skins this season. Coming off of a three-win season, the sportsbooks have the Redskins in the basement of the NFL Futures. However I don’t think they will be as bad as last season, and getting back to .500 is likely for this team if they’re healthy. At LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas, the Redskins have a season win total of 7 ½, which would indicate that LVH is a little higher on Washington than most. At Bovada however they are severely undervaluing the Skins this season. After a year in the basement, Washington may be back to being a solid ATS wager in the NFL Odds this season.
NFC East (+400)
Even though Washington’s Super Bowl and NFC futures don't deserve a look for your NFL picks, their odds to win the East are extremely valuable, and one of my better bets of the offseason. At 4/1, the Skins are the behind the other three teams, but it’s close according to Bovada’s odds. The Cowboys and Giants are +350 and +300 respectfully, and while the Eagles are +130, I think it’s safe to say that they are pretty overvalued at that price. I put the Eagles closer to +180. Even though it’s not a lock, nine wins may take this division this season, and the Redskins are more than capable of getting there. If their defense stays healthy along with RG3, this team is very undervalued this summer.