Here comes Santa Claus and he looks mad about something, so best give he and Rudolph a little 4-team NFL parlay they can pull for this weekend before their big trip around the world from the North Pole next week.
With a little Darrelle Revis, a little Aaron Rodgers, a little Tom Brady and a little Russell Wilson, this NFL fruitcake may be tasty come Monday or may be taste like cardboard, as parlays often do. Here is a $20 shot in the dark with picks backed strongly on recent relevant Trends, NFL odds, some feelings and some things we’ve seen this season.
Introduction: Mixing Angsty A Good Winter Walk With Recreational Sports Gambling
Every once a month, the Kwai Chang Caine in me forces me into this strange walkabout up Decatur Avenue here in Las Vegas to one of the casinos and sportsbooks I frequented when first moving to Sin City some 25 years ago to see what’s really up with The World as well as my body, and the usually multi-legged parlays I lay my hard-earned cash on are always this wonderful American Football Lotto ticket in my mind, sure to hit, but usually resulting in a near-miss and some stupid story about some stupid player that couldn’t kick/catch/throw the damn football right. And this Kung Fu-like trek north a couple miles has admittedly become harder through the years as dodging driverless cars, avoiding the revolting amounts of garbage, negotiating the months-long and seemingly never-ending construction project on the major thoroughfare as well as the coming Old Man Winter while inhaling small parts of Oxygen through the Carbon Monoxide and and Nitrogen Oxide sort of kills the old adage about “a good walk.”
So this nervous wobble up the broken sidewalk has had to pass as “exercise” and is perceived a worthy walkabout when it’s really just a monthly lesson at how quickly our greedy world is devolving while getting the right/privilege to yell at Tom Brady for doing something really little wrong after doing like 19 straight things right and lose my $20. Anyway, the theory here—besides dressing warm and (not) wearing sensible shoes—is to bet on the Good Teams and bet against the Bad Teams who may be streaking a bad way.
There’s your algorithm. It’s not particularly deep this week, but it seems the Parlays (Accumulators) one tries make cute or perfect or in which you add that one extra team are the ones that always lose and seem to hurt the most. At least this chalky NFL Week 15 parlay I shall be placing Friday as the cherry on top of my monthly walking sundae forae won’t be doomed by a dreaded 0-0 scoreline in a Real Madrid match which honestly taken down at least four big multi-leg parlays over the last four years, two on the last leg of 8-teams at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. So when SuperBook Head Honcho Jay Kornegay sends Madrid superstar Cristiano Ronaldo that fruitcake every December, you now know who paid for it, Billy Bob.
Saturday, December 19-Sunday, December 20, 2015—Project Blitzen: NFL 4-Team Favorites Parlay (Accumulator)
This 4-teamer is buoyed by teams who care, teams with great QBs and teams and fighting for something. Also, by some positive Trends. It starts on Saturday—because the best parlays lose on the first leg and don’t waste your precious Time—with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets and a game New York needs to win and Dallas doesn’t. And although the Jets are 1-4 ATS the L5 in this series, those were bad New York teams and America’s (Former) Team is without starting QB Tony Romo (Collarbone, Out for Season) and can’t match Defenses with the overrated Cowboys.
For the Patriots NFL pick, it’s because they’re New England, and because the last time they played, New England defeated the Titans by 21 points, 34-13 in Nashville, covering ATS as 5-point favorites while the last meeting at Gillette Stadium back in 2009 saw the Patriots embarrass Tennessee, 59-0 covering the Point Spread easily as 9½-point favorites. The Patriots are 3-0 ATS the L3 in this series and 3-1 ATS the L4 here at Home against Tennessee, who are a pathetic 8-23-3 ATS its L34 (23.5%) overall heading into Sunday and you know Head Coach Bill Belichick’s wife has to wake him up hourly at night and tell him to stop mumbling, ”Home-field Advantage, Home-field advantage, Home-field Advantage.”
The Seahawks get the obvious nod not only because they are on their famous 2nd Half Psycho roll, but this pick is also a fade of the Cleveland Browns—who are travelling over 2,400 miles and 3 Times Zones west (EST to PST)—and green starting QB Johnny Manziel against a Defense like few we have ever seen in the NFL. And the Packers are 5-1 ATS the L6 against the Raiders and although Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay will have to travel two Time Zones west (CST to PST), this game means something to them and the Silver and Black are historically very poor ATS at Home (2-4 ATS this season). If you try this at home, good luck, and my sincerest apologies.
NFL Week 15 Free 4-Team Favorites Parlay: Jets -3 -120/Patriots -14/Seahawks -15/Packers -3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Super Bowl 50 Futures Bet Holiday Present Pick: AFC -1½ -110 to win Super Bowl (Bovada)