Vikings vs. 49ers: Capper Leans on Home Dog as Monday Night's Solid NFL Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, September 14, 2015 4:24 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 14, 2015 4:24 PM UTC

The Minnesota Vikings travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers in the nightcap of this ESPN Double-header to conclude Week 1 betting NFL season & I see profit to be made in this contest.

Vikings vs. 49ers Monday Night Odds Report

NFL Picks on Totals for Vikings-49ers MNF

ATS NFL Picks for Vikings-49ers MNF

Monday Night Player Props


Minnesota Vikings (-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers 10:20 ET ESPN
The Minnesota Vikings travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers in the nightcap of this ESPN Double-header to conclude Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season. East coast viewers may be so exhausted after watching the Eagles/Falcons’ game that they will be turning down the covers for this relative snoozer!  But, I see profit to be made in this contest, with my contrary NFL pick.

The Minnesota Vikings have quickly become a pointspread darling to the wallets of the American sporting public. After finishing the 2014 season 5-1 ATS, the Vikings went 4-1 SU ATS in the preseason. They lost only last week’s meaningless finale. That game saw the end of an 8-0 SU, pre-season run by 2nd year HC Zimmer. Zimmer appears to be an ideal coach for the makeup of the Vikings. This defensive specialist crafted an improved 7-9 SU record last season based on a defense that improved 9 points and 53 yards from the 2013 campaign. The Vikings have an emerging franchise QB in Bridgewater and the return of RB Peterson to solidify the run game. This team is a popular pick to continue their upward mobility and possibly ascend to the playoff party come January.

On the other bench is a home team, which even their fans may not recognize!  The 49ers had the greatest roster turnover of any team in the NFL. It was precipitated by a declining 2014 season which saw the 49ers slip from 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS. That after a trio of seasons that saw the 49ers make deep playoff runs with a record of 41-14-1 SU and 37-19 ATS under the tutelage of former HC Harbaugh (now HC at Michigan). Harbaugh is replaced by new HC Tomsula, the 49ers former DL coach. Along with the coaching change, the 49ers were gutted by retirement and the Aldon Smith fiasco, which finally resulted in his dismissal.  QB Kaepernick returns in hopes of rejuvenating an offense that went from an average of 25 PPG in the previous 3 years to just 19 PPG in 2014.   

There is little question that the Vikings appear to be further ahead in their development than the 49ers. But, we must trust the linemaker who opened this game with the 49ers a (3-) point home favorite.  He is right far more often than not in games where the public has moved the line to the point where the Vikings are now 2 point chalk. Bettors beware, if you think this one is that easy. This 5- point line move puts the NFL odds in your favor with San Francisco tonight.

From a totals perspective, it would certainly appear easy to back the UNDER, knowing that 78% of NFL Game 1’s have gone UNDER in games involving non-division road favorites. But before you take off that rubber band, know that 37 of 52 primetime games went OVER the posted TOTAL last season, including 22 of 26 non-division affairs. Week 1 to date has seen 9 OVERs and 5 UNDERs with the 46.5 average points per game just a bit higher than the average opening total of 45.9 PPG.

NFL Pick: Take San Francisco 49ers +2

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