Vikings Offense Woes Bring Value To Under Pick vs. Unproven Rams

Shaun Hill

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, August 31, 2016 8:45 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2016 8:45 PM UTC

The Vikings have had a pretty emotional week and now their fourth and final preseason game has been thrown for a loop. Right now the NFL Odds still favor the Vikings at -2, with a total of 35.

No Offense For Both Teams
Without Bridgewater in for the regular season, most are speculating that the Vikings might go out and sign or trade for a quarterback. Whether that’s the embattled, Colin Kaepernick or another veteran arm, the Vikings are now scrambling to come up with an option under center that is not Shaun Hill.

However, they likely won’t have someone ready to play by Thursday, meaning Hill and Joel Stave will be under center for the Vikings against Los Angeles. This is not good for Minnesota’s offensive performance not only in the regular season but in this game as well.

Assuming the Vikings go with Shaun Hill at least for the short term, I doubt he plays in this game against the Rams. He is a 36-year-old starting quarterback who doesn’t need to play much if at all in this final game.


With that being said, the Rams don’t have that great of options under center either. Case Keenum has looked pretty good and is going to get the starting nod, but does that mean he isn’t going to play much in the final preseason game? Jared Goff has looked more lost than found if you know what I mean and considering he has shown he isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed on Hard Knocks, I have little faith in his ability at this point to get the Rams consistently on the board when he is in this game.

So, with all of this in mind, the total of 35 is low, but it might still be great under play. It is easily the lowest total of Week 4 of the preseason, but it has also been trending downward. After opening at 37, the total has dropped two full points and most of that was before the Bridgewater injury. This tells me the sharps are right there with us with the under here.

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The Sharp Pick
We also have some nice precedence on our side over the last two seasons when it comes to lower scores in Week 4 of the preseason. We talked about and took advantage of the under in Week 1 this preseason and Week 4 is starting to be similar under value. Week 4 sees very few NFL level players on the field. In fact, teams are looking to fill maybe just a final few roster spots or spaces left on special teams.

This is going to lead to a sloppy game, as has been shown over the last two years in Week 4 of the preseason. In the last two years, the under has cashed at 19-12-1 in Week 4 of the preseason. This, along with the line movement and the overall offensive sinkhole that both of these teams are at the moment behind their first strings, take the under on this one before the total gets even lower.

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 35
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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