Value Week 4 NFL Picks to Consider for Sunday

Joe Catalano

Saturday, October 3, 2015 8:10 PM GMT

There have been a ton of injuries and a ton of excitement in the first 3 weeks in the NFL. Although the New England Patriots are on the bye, there are still many other games in which we can find value when placing our bets.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

No Home Field Advantage
This will be a very early game as it will be played outside of the United States. After watching Miami's offense get crushed by the Buffalo Bills defense, I don't think that anything can help Ryan Tannehill and the spread is just 1 point as the Jets are a favorite with no home field advantage.

Let's not forget, the Philadelphia Eagles took care of the Jets last week to serve New York their first loss, but New York did show some life and were without Christopher Ivory and Eric Decker.

When Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't have Eric Decker to throw the football to, the opposing defenses can double team Brandon Marshall. New York has one of the best defenses in the NFL. I don't expect Tannehill to look towards Revis Island. Look for New York to be a bit healthier and make easy work of the Dolphins, who seem to be going backwards aside from the outstanding play of receiver Jarvis Landry.

NFL Pick: New York Jets -1 -104 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837006, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos
Who would believe that 39 year old Peyton Manning and his Broncos are a perfect 3-0? After watching Denver handle Kansas City last week, I've gained some confidence in them. Head coach Gary Kubiak and Peyton Manning have had a slight disagreement as Manning has wanted to use the shotgun,, which will give him more time to dink, dunk, and bomb the football. This is due to Denver having a very weak offensive line. 

Thus far, coach and player have compromised and it worked well as the Chiefs were totally ineffective against the Broncos. The Broncos dominated the game with their top-notch defense as Alex Smith is still looking to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver, but Peyton was able to find Thomas, Sanders, and even Owen Daniels open and this was the difference in the ball game. Denver's only issue is their run game as Ronnie Hillman has been more effective than C.J. Anderson.

 

A.P.
The one thing the Vikings don't have to worry about is their running game as Adrian Peterson has picked up where he left off. Peterson is the best running back in the game and he will be the main focus of the Denver defense. Minnesota is 2-1 after a 31-14 beating of the San Diego Chargers and AP is the main reason for Minny's success. Thus far, he's run for 291 yards and 2 TD's. His pure presence on the field has opponents guessing whether the play will be a run or pass.

I'm a little shocked with the point spread as I thought it would be more. Take Minnesota with your NFL picks. Look for their ground game to keep this a competitive game.

NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings +7 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837057, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
It really doesn't matter which running back starts for the Rams even though St.Louis is very interested in what Todd Gurley can do. Carson Palmer is an all-world quarterback as a member of the Cardinals. Not only that, he has one of the best connections in the league with wide receiver, Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald had been underused, but the boardline hall of famer is sure to make the hall if Palmer stay's healthy.

Arizona is coming off of a 47-7 victory over the San Francisco 49'ers in a game that was never in doubt. Although Colin Kaepernick didn't help his cause with 2 early pick 6's, Arizona offense was simply dominant with Palmer throwing for 311 yards and 134 of those yards going to Fitzgerald along with 2 TD's. Chris Johnson also had 100 yard game and this is as bad a blowout as you'll see. Arizona already has a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and look for it to become greater. This game will be an easy Arizona win in the desert.

NFL Pick: Arizona -7 +107 NFL odds at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837056, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]