Value Plays for Week 11 NFL Picks

Joe Catalano

Sunday, November 16, 2014 3:19 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 16, 2014 3:19 PM UTC

As we hit the middle of November, the 2014-2015 NFL Season starts to get more serious as some teams can't afford a loss while other teams are positioning themselves for the stretch run. It's time for some week 11 NFL Value Picks and I see some appealing betting picks on the board.

New England Patriots (7-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
This is the matchup of the week on Sunday night and Tom Brady, who has a near perfect season, has said something before a game that I don't like to hear. He was praising Andrew Luck as a great talent and as we know, Luck is the future of the NFL. In my opinion, you don't ever want to build the opponents confidence up before a game or they might just believe the hype. Brady doesn't have the luxury of playing at Gillette Stadium in this matchup and the Pats are a slight underdog in this game.

Look for a very close matchup. New England has been crushing their opponents; Denver included. As long as Tom Brady has a healthy Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are a dangerous team. Due to injuries, they don't have much of a running game, but Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman compensate for the lacking of running.

As for the Colts, they gave Eli Manning's Giants a fairly sound beating, 40-24, 13 days ago. The game wasn't even that close as the G-Men scored a couple of TD's during garbage time. Luck is accurate and a very powerful quarterback that can shrug off tackles and deliver the football right on time to receivers T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne. Luck also has a good relationship with Coby Fleener as he played with him in college. The Colts need this game much more than the Pats do.

NFL Pick- Indianapolis -3 at 5Dimes

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Detroit Lions (7-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
Who would ever believe that these two teams would be so elite? The problem for the Cardinals is that Carson Palmer, who signed a huge contract, is out with a season ending injury and this could be the end of the Cardinals Super Bowl run. It will be up to backup QB Drew Stanton to keep the confidence level high in Arizona against a very tough Lions team. Look for a lot of Andre Ellington  and Larry Fitzgerald in this game as Stanton's primary target.

From the Lions' side of things, they managed to have a 7-2 record and most of it was done without Calvin Johnson.Wide receiver, Golden Tate, has had a superb season. Look for the passing game to be the primary direction that Lions offense takes. They have very little in the form of running. I think the loss of Palmer affects Arizona here as the Lions beat the Cards outright.

NFL Pick- Detroit +1

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Oakland Raiders (0-9) vs. San Diego Chargers (5-4)
The Chargers are a heavy favorite in this game against the worst team in the NFL in the Oakland Raiders. That said, the Chargers are a team that will show up one week with a spectacular performance and then the next week, will tank like they did against Miami in their last game 37-0.

It's quite clear from watching the Dolphins-Chargers game that Phillip Rivers will never win a Super Bowl. On the other hand, it's quite clear that the Raiders will be receiving #1 draft picks as this team can't find a solid starting quarterback. Derek Carr doesn't have much offensive support as Darren McFadden and James Jones are his best players at key positions, but quite frankly, he stinks.

I can't take the Chargers as a 10 point NFL odds betting favorite, even at home, after the egg that they laid against an average Miami Dolphins football team. Look for the Raiders to keep this game close for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick- Oakland +10 

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Additional Leans

Minnesota +3 over Chicago
Normally, I would take the Bears with their talent at wide receiver, but giving up back to back 50 point games is inexcuseable.


Giants +4 Over 49'ers 
This is a must win situation for the G-Men, who have 6 losses. San Francisco hasn't looked as good this season as in the past couple of years. Rashad Jennings should be back in the Giants lineup and that will be huge at MetLife Stadium for the Giants.

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