Value Plays & Trends to Consider for Your Week 2 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 15, 2015 7:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 15, 2015 7:27 PM UTC

When putting together this article, it is a two-fold thought when reading the NFL odds. We are looking not only at teams to cover spreads, but at numbers that appear to have edges against the sportbooks.

For example, one team we are looking at is brutally awful and started the season in the same fashion, but already the betting odds seem too high this early in the season and while they are expected to lose and might not cover, the number is something every sharp football handicapper will pay attention to.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of WagerWeb


San Francisco Has Serious Disadvantages Flying to Pittsburgh
Tip of the hat to new coach Jim Tomsula and his San Francisco 49ers who kicked Minnesota's as_, sorry, backside, running the ball down their throats for 230 yards and limiting them to just 71 yards on the ground. Totally awesome game plan and execution by the Niners.

Unfortunately, the situation will not suit San Fran this time heading on the road. San Francisco invested a lot emotion in that contest and has to prepare on a short week and travel cross-country for a game that will start at 10:00 am on their body clocks. While this is not as big a deal as in years past flying west to east, the shorter work schedule does matter. Also, preparing for Pittsburgh which just gained 464 yards of offense on the road at New England and has three extra days off has to hurt, making the Steelers at -5.5 too inviting to pass up for NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Steelers -5.5 (-110) at 5Dimes


Buccaneers Stink, But Too Many Digits to Pass Up
The Buccaneers stink as noted above and Tampa Bay's coach Lovie Smith's excuses for his team's dreadful play are already as annoying as those lame Bo Jackson's TV commercials. The Bucs were destroyed by an equally bad Tennessee squad 42-14 at home and hit the road to New Orleans for a division battle.

Oddsmakers have Tampa Bay as +10.5 point underdogs already and while it is largely deserving, here is why from situational standpoint this is too much lumber.

Start with the Buccaneers are a respect 7-5 ATS since 2009 catching double digits. Conversely, the Saints are only 6-9 ATS handing out that many points and are merely 9-14 ATS as a division home favorite at any price the past decade. Take the points for sports picks with ugly value-based pooch.

NFL Picks: Buccaneers +10 (-115) at BetOnline


Patriots Tie-up Bills Tyrod Taylor
Last week here I said Andrew Luck vs. Tyrod Taylor was a complete mismatch and it was, just not in the way I was thinking. Taylor was poised and under control, something Luck was not.

Rex Ryan has upstate New York all excited with his bravado, just like he did in the Empire City when he first arrived. Buffalo proved it has the makings of a good squad and his players have already bought into his salesmanship.

But this is New England, the Super Bowl champions, with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and his whole cast of cheaters. (Relax, it's a joke) If there is one team that can expose Taylor's weaknesses, it is the Patriots with their expert game-planning.

Though New England does not win every important game, they are 9-2 ATS at Buffalo. This confrontation was reduced to a Pick on Tuesday and the last two times the odds were in this range and the Bills were really expected to compete, they lost 37-22 as one-point home favorites last year and 52-28 as four-point home underdogs in 2012.

NFL Picks: Patriots PK (-110) at bet365

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