We are officially in the second half of the NFL season as of this week, and with that comes another great set of prop betting options from bet365. I have combed through their current player prop options, and I have three plays to add to your NFL picks this week.
LeGarrette Blount O/U 70.5 Rushing Yards
The Patriots are playing host to the Washington Redskins this week, and by all accounts, most people seem to think the game will be a blowout. With the NFL odds favoring the Patriots by more than two touchdowns in some instances, the conventional wisdom is that LeGarrette Blount will be running the ball 20 times in this one, as the Patriots try and run out the clock in the second half. However, the Redskins rushing defense is better than they get credit for, and with their secondary not that great, the Patriots could very easily just throw the ball 45 times regardless of the score. We already know that the Patriots aren’t shy about running up the score, and it might be a good way to make up the pace for their quest to break their own total points record from their undefeated regular season. If the Pats end up throwing the ball a bunch regardless of the score, it will hurt Blount, and even if he averages four yards per carry in this one, he would need 18 carries to get above the 70-yard mark. I don’t see it happening this week against the Skins.
NFL Pick: UNDER 70.5 (-120) at bet365
Julian Edelman O/U 76.5 Receiving Yards
Staying with the same game, if my narrative on the Patriots and their passing game come true this week, than the over looks like the play on Julian Edelman going up against a weak secondary. With Brandon Lafell back, I don’t think that takes away from Edelman as much as it does Danny Amendola. Even though Edelman isn’t seeing 13-14 targets per game like he was to start the season, he is still seeing around ten per game. With a yard per target average of nearly 7.8 this season, as long as Edelman sees double digit targets in this game, the likelihood of him going over in this one is pretty high. In fact Edelman has only two games this season where he would have fallen under this yards total, and after 81 yards last week against the Dolphins, I think we can expect somewhat similar output this week against Washington. Even though the Skins’ passing defense has been better at times this week, this is the Patriots they have to play against this week. I see the Tom Brady F-You Tour continuing this week.
NFL Pick: OVER 76.5 (-125) at bet365
Teddy Bridgewater O/U 225.5 Passing Yards
Teddy Bridgewater has been a solid game manager for the Vikings this season, and against a tough Rams defense this week, I don’t see him suddenly busting out of that role and into a role of 35 pass attempt Teddy. Even with a seemingly low yards total of 225.5, the Rams passing defense has been good this year, and the Vikings are almost certainly going to run the offense through Adrian Peterson. This total is one of the lowest of all the totals in Week 9, and after throwing for less than 200 yards against the Bears last week, I doubt Bridgewater turns it up against the Rams. At home this season, Teddy is averaging only 174 passing yards per game. Take the under with your NFL picks on this one.
NFL Pick: UNDER 225.5 (-115)