Using What Bookies Missed to Make the Best Week 11 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Sunday, November 22, 2015 12:37 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 12:37 PM UTC

Another week of NFL looms ahead. Join us as we sift through the odds board in search of the best NFL picks for you straight up, against the spread and total bets.

Best SU Pick: Patriots keep on rolling
Arguably, the most popular straight up NFL pick on week 11’s jam-packed menu is the Patriots to keep on rolling at the expense of the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are in an advantageous position, sat just outside of the top AFC playoff spots mired in a wildcard battle. That amounts to incentive to win this game, so they shouldn’t be taken lightly in this highly anticipated Monday Night showdown. However, we are talking about the Patriots. The defending champions who are on a mission to prove their title winning run last season was no fluke. There are those NFL bettors that are drawing comparisons to the 2007 Patriots, who finished the regular season undefeated and sailed all the way to the Super Bowl only to lose to the Giants in dramatic fashion. They would have this instalment of the Patriots even better than that impervious instalment and predict a similar regular season outcome when all is said and done. Consider how they’ve played thus far, it’s hard to argue with that notion. As such, it’s hard to bet against them even if Rex Ryan and the Bills cut a solid figure as spoilers.

NFL Picks: Patriots -340 at 5Dimes

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Best ATS Pick: Cardinals to cover over Bengals
Arizona Cardinals are coming off a road upset in Seattle, a gauntlet throwing win that underscores their credentials as viable playoff contenders. The Bengals, meanwhile, are coming off an abysmal 10-6 loss to the Texans on the road, a game that was won by backup T.J. Yates’ touchdown pass. That Andy Dalton was unable to respond in kind – the Bengals were held to two field goals over four quarters – is a cause for concern, prompting thrusting an otherwise perfect season into disrepute and reviving Dalton bashing, particularly primetime Dalton bashing. NFL odds makers opened the game on a rather low 2.5-points with the Cardinals to the good but it has since swelled to 4 points or higher depending on your sportsbook of choice. This might seem a lot of points to cover given the Bengals are 8-1 SU on the season and 7-1-1 against the spread with a 9.2-point winning margin and a plus 5.2-point differential against the spread. However, there have been just too many underwhelming performances by Andy Dalton to ignore. If that trend continues in this Sunday Night primetime clash, the Bengals will be in a whole slew of trouble. Keep in mind, this is a road game as well, not to mention the Cardinals are 6-3-0 ATS on the season with a 13-point winning margin on average and a plus 8.4-point differential against the spread.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -4 (-110) betway

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Best Total Pick: Falcons and Colts to Go UNDER
Predicting the totals has been one of the greatest challenges this season as preconceived notions about each and every team have been turned upside down. Traditionally offensive minded teams such as the Packers and Eagles for instance boast a stronger UNDER record than they do an OVER record, which is a departure from last season. Similar cases can be found on the opposite side of the spectrum. In any event, we tossed around before settling on this game. The Falcons and Colts are trading on a rather high 47.5-to-48-point total, up from an opening 46-points. This trend goes against current form and conditions. On one hand, the Falcons are winless in three of their last four games and they are just 2-6-1 in O/U betting this season. On the other hand, the Colts will be without Andrew Luck in this game. Matt Hasselbeck has done well in two previous relief stints, but he’s beaten subpar opposition. This is the first team over .500 he attempts to stare down. All things together and coupled with the uncertainties the total seems too high. Take the UNDER 47.5.

NFL Picks: UNDER 47.5 (-110) at Pinnacle

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