Using Quarterback Efficiency to Formulate Your NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 14, 2014 8:41 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 8:41 PM GMT

The last three weeks in NFL action the average score of a game approaches 48 PPG and there is no greater way in which that has been demonstrated than with the premier passers in the NFL. The chart below demonstrates two ways in which we can use their efficiency to aid in creating our NFL picks.

There is an old time college basketball adage that says, “Put your money on the player.” It refers to the fact that in competitively priced games, that figure to come down to the closing minute, you want to be able to put the basketball in the hands of the best player on the floor. With college basketball beginning Friday night, I thought it was an appropriate title for this article. By the way, you won’t want to miss the start of my college hoops season; the last two seasons there have been November breaks from the gate of 69-32 ATS (68%) in 2013, and 71-44 ATS (64%) in 2014, along with a Top Play run late last season of 129-73 ATS (64%). It is a microcosm of the reason why my basketball selections are the all-time net profit winner in the sports service industry since 1979. But I digress. In recent seasons, I have used the “best player” adage to record profits in other sports as well as college hoops. This article takes it one step further in applying it to the professional ranks.

Much of my NFL handicapping is centered around statistical analysis involving dominance at the point of attack. Those statistics have been well documented with records of 75%-88% in recent articles. With the advent of the tightening of defensive fouls, the NFL has become an open playground for efficient passers. The proof is in the pudding, as in the last three weeks in NFL action the average score of a game approaches 48 PPG. There is no greater way in which that has been demonstrated than with the premier passers in the NFL. The chart below demonstrates two ways in which we can use their efficiency to aid in creating our NFL picks.

QB

Team

SU

ATS

Over/Under

Peyton Manning

Denver Broncos

7-2

5-3

7-2

Tom Brady

New England Patriots

7-2

5-4

7-2

Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers

6-3

4-4

8-1

Andrew Luck

Indianapolis Colts

6-3

6-2

7-2

Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

4-5

4-5

7-2

These five quarterbacks are widely regarded as the greatest passers in the NFL today. As we can see from totaling the above chart, their teams are a profitable 30-15 SU, 24-18 ATS. But the real money has come with the over/under record of their teams, which is now a combined 36-9 (80%) record. Since there is no free money in the NFL, a quick look at this week’s over/under lines shows you how the over/under number on these quarterbacks has swelled. In fact, the four games in which they are participating have an opening odds average of 53.5 points. But until the winter chill and winds come in to play, there may still be opportunities with these quality arms. Until that time, you can “put your money on the player.” 

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