Upset Alert for Week 15 NFL Picks

Steven Suarez

Thursday, December 11, 2014 8:03 PM GMT

We should always be prepared for the unexpected in the NFL, that much we've learned. Which games have the best chance of finishing in upset fashion in Week 15?

Atlanta Falcons (+2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Listen, we're not going to sit here and pretend like the Falcons are a good team. They most certainly have flaws, but a lot teams do.

There are, however, a couple things going for Atlanta. Despite an awful record, they're still in a prime position to reach the playoffs, so motivation to perform isn't an issue at all - these Falcons still have a lot to play for, so it's hard to imagine any scenario in which they lay down and die.

And, how can we lose sight of Atlanta's very talented (albeit inconsistent) offense. It was on full display on Monday Night Football in Week 14, as Matt Ryan and company went toe to toe with the Packers at Lambeau Field. Putting up 37 points is never an easy feat, especially when you're a huge underdog in a tough environment, so props to the Falcons for putting on a good show.

The Steelers are putting a lot of points on the board too, and we expect them to have a lot of success against Atlanta's porous defense, but it's not like Pittsburgh has done well defensively. This seems like a great spot at home for the Falcons to get a straight up win as dogs.

Upset Probability: Strong

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San Diego Chargers (+4) vs. Denver Broncos
We all know how potent the Broncos are when they have the ball. Peyton Manning may not be playing his best football right now, but he seems to show up and shine the most when people start doubting him.

That could very well prove true again in Week 15, but the Chargers are in an attractive situation this weekend, at home against an opponent they tend to play well against. San Diego comes in having won three of their last four, which includes nice victories over the surging Rams and the Ravens.

It's never easy to fade Denver, but the Chargers are getting points at home, where they've gone 5-2 SU this season. They know the Broncos as well as anyone and will like their chances of scoring an upset against a team that hasn't been nearly as dominant out on the road.

So while we don't love the pick, we wouldn't be surprised at all to see San Diego win straight up here, which of course makes the hosts an appealing play on NFL odds betting spread.

Upset Probability: Fair

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Buffalo Bills (+4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
The Bills have been a nice surprise this season. They have a winning record and have earned some impressive wins already, as their defense has become one of the better units in the NFL.

That being said, there are better avenues to take than to go against the Packers in this situation. Green Bay is on a great roll right now, having logged five consecutive wins. In three of the victories, they've gone over 43 points, which just shows you how unstoppable this offense is on their day. 

Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the game right now and he's got a scary amount of talent to work with around him. The defense has been a little suspect, but it hasn't mattered much with the way the offense has been clicking. We know Buffalo's been sound defensively, but we don't expect them to have much success slowing down the Packers.

Plus, we have a hard time seeing Kyle Orton and the shaky Bills offense being able to score enough points to stay close in this situation. With your NFL picks, there are much safer options than taking a chance on Buffalo at home.

Upset Probability: Unlikely

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