UPSET ALERT! Add STL to NFL Picks as Rams to Stun Seahawks in Week 1

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, September 12, 2015 1:28 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 12, 2015 1:28 PM UTC

Each week in this space, I isolate the 'NFL Lone Ranger Contrarian Play of the Week'.  It is a blend of different kinds of analysis that will result in an outstanding opportunity for you to cash a winning ticket on a team for whom little love is being shown by the linemaker or public.

NFL LONE RANGER PLAY OF THE WEEK … Seattle Seahawks (-4) at St Louis Rams 1:00 ET

This Week 1 NFL pick is a blend of statistical, situational and technical analysis that will result in an outstanding opportunity for you to put the NFL odds in your favor on a team for whom little love is being shown by the linemaker or football betting public.

The Seattle Seahawks visit the St Louis Rams for this Divisional rivalry to open the 2015 NFL season for each team. It is the first of a brutal travel schedule, which finds the Seahawks flying at least two time zones east, no fewer than 6 times this NFL season. They will also be meeting an opponent who has caused them fits at this site in recent seasons. Last year, St Louis won on this field 28-26, barely lost 14-9 the season before that, and saw St Louis record a 19-13 victory in 2012. Yet, everyone is expecting this two time Super Bowl team to advance for a third consecutive time to the pen ultimate game in the NFL this season. That perception is backed by public money, which has forced this line up to Seattle -4 from what this bureau considers to be an overlay from the opening number of -3. The reality is, not only has this been historically a very tough matchup for the Seahawks, but that this mat already ge the begining of the end of a burgeoning Seattle dynasty. 

Will the Seahawk franchise ever recover from the call by HC Carroll to pass the football from inside the 2 yard line with the Super Bowl on the line? Everyone in America would have simply handed the ball of to Marshawn Lynch, three times if necessary. Now QB Wilson has shattered confidence, and Lynch is left wondering “what if?” As if the mental issues were not enough for Seattle, they are now dealing with key contract holdouts and OL issues which troubled them through much of the preseason. In addition, there is that matter of a look ahead to Green Bay next week, a perennial NFC Super Bowl challenger themselves. In the last three years, Seattle has gone 42-14 SU, while in the last four years HC Carroll has led them to a 46-24 ATS mark. Further supporting the reality of this selection, is that game 1 Super Bowl losers are just 2-13 SU ATS. Going hand in glove with that, is that game 1 road teams in this price range who had more than 12 victories in the previous season have fallen flat on their face 75% of the time.   

Adding to the perception of the outcome of this game is the fact that St Louis has not been a greater than .500 team in the last decade. Last year, the anemic offense could average just 20 PPG on 314 YPG; that has been par for the course in the three year tenure of HC Jeff Fisher. In hopes of breaking that mold, the Rams lured former Philly QB Nick Foles in the deal that traded QBs, sending Sam Bradford to Philly. Knowing that St Louis was 0-4 SU ATS in preseason play only adds fuel to our perception/reality play. 

A solid vote for history as the Rams win outright against the Seattle team who is about to fall from their pinnacle of success.

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