Updated Week 12 NFL Picks: Sharp Opportunities to Spot

Nikki Adams

Sunday, November 29, 2015 12:12 AM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015 12:12 AM GMT

We look at the NFL odds board as we get closer to Sunday’s round of action and spot a couple of home favorites trading on low NFL betting lines that offer excellent opportunity for sharp bettors to buy low.

Bucs vs. Colts: Sharp Money on Colts at Low of -2.5
Advanced betting lines last week with Westgate opened the Colts as the 3.5-point favorites over the Bucs, knowing that Matt Hasselbeck would be playing in relief for Andrew Luck. The veteran starter was after all undefeated in his previous starts, proving to be a reliable back-up option other teams might envy. Following week 11 NFL betting, Hasselbeck underscored that market nod by leading the Colts to victory of the Falcons, improving to 3-0 SU. Yet, the books reopened with the Colts down by half-a-point, to 3-point home chalk despite that solid run of form with Hasselbeck. The reason for that is found in Jameis Winston’s performance in the same week over the Eagles on the road, throwing 5 TD passes as he lead the Bucs to a stunning 45-17 win on the road. What’s more, the public seems to be buying into the Bucs as the trendy underdog NFL pick. Consensus betting at SBR reveals 60% of bets wagered are on the Bucs, which correlate to 58% of the actual money coming down the wire. To put it simply: the Bucs are the vogue underdog NFL pick these days.

That public NFL betting trend appears to have forced lines down further now to 2.5-points at some sportsbooks such as 5Dimes.  It’s worth pointing out, however, that while the Bucs are 4-1 ATS with a 5.4-point winning margin and a plus 12.1-point differential against the spread, only one instance this season featured them as the 3-point road dogs. That was on October 25 when they descended on the Redskins as the 3-point road dogs to lose a nerve-bitter 30-31. All other instances featured lines of 6-points or higher at closing. Granted Winston’s recently upside isn’t something to scoff at, but back-to-back road games is no mean feat. What all this could potentially mean is a brilliant opportunity for sharp NFL bettors to capitalise on low NFL odds for the home faves. Let’s face it on the strength of Hasselbeck’s accounts, the Colts do seem a bit underrated.

NFL Picks: Colts -2.5

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Steelers vs. Seahawks: Sharp Money On Seahawks at Low -3.5
Advanced NFL lines released by Westgate ahead of week 11 featured the Seahawks as rather low home favorites of 3-points against the spread, despite the renowned home advantage at CenturyLink field – the so-called 12th man. Anybody that’s followed the Seahawks this season can’t help but notice the Legion of Boom isn’t quite as booming as it’s been in season’s past. The only teams they managed to beat at home were the Lions, Bears and Niners – none of which are enjoying a great season, making those wins hardly charging. Yet, on the heels of the win over the Niners, which was in the double-digits, odds makers reopened the Seahawks anywhere from -5.5-points to 3.5-points, depending on the sports betting outlet.

Those that opened high on the Seahawks quickly came back down to the 3.5-point range as evinced by current NFL lines trading at most sportsbooks. Consensus betting at SBR reveals the bulk of early betting pounded the Pittsburgh Steelers as the road underdogs, to the tune of 65.20 % of bets that equal to 58.35% of actual money. Clearly, Seattle were deemed overvalued by the public in early betting markets. However, with the NFL betting line dwindling down as game time approaches, those looking to bank on Seattle’s home advantage should start to find hosts more attractive. Let’s face it, Big Ben is still not 100% this season. Yes, he did hobble onto the field in relief for Landry and led the Steelers to the convincing 30-9 win. But beating the Manziel-inspired Browns is nothing to get charged about. Heck, a college team probably could do it with eyes closed.  That’s npt to take anything away from Big Ben, only to say that he’ll need all his faculties at full throttle to beat the Seahawks, down though they might be on the season with just a 5-5 SU mark. As they say, be wary of the hungry wolf with your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Seahawks -3.5

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