Updated Super Bowl 50 NFL Odds Movement & Betting Trends

Ted Sevransky

Thursday, January 7, 2016 10:05 PM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016 10:05 PM GMT

In this article we look at the current NFL odds to win Super Bowl 50 and discuss which teams offer the most betting value and which teams are vulnerable.

Here are the current odds from Pinnacle and other sportsbooks in the NFL Futures Market, as of Thursday, January 7th:

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2819622, "sportsbooksIds":[238,19,999996,1096,93,169], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

As you can see, there is no clear-cut favorite; not even close.  The Cardinals and the Panthers must be considered co-favorites coming out of the NFC, with the Seahawks just behind that duo.  And the defending champion Patriots are the favorite to come out of the AFC, with Denver just behind.  Everyone else in the mix is at least a 10:1 longshot.

At these prices there are two bets I’d be willing to make.  First, I think Carolina at +407 NFL odds is an attractive price for those who don’t already have the Panthers at a better price in their pocket.  This team has been an undervalued commodity all year.  The Sagarin numbers say that the Panthers played the single easiest schedule in the NFL this year, but I’m not buying that argument because it doesn’t mesh with my numbers. 

I watched the Panthers beat every playoff team they faced this season – Seattle, Green Bay, Washington and Houston – by a combined 47 points.  I’ve watched Ron Rivera successfully play the ‘no respect’ card for this squad, something that Cam Newton is very familiar with from his days at Auburn, when the Tigers, too, were disrespected by the betting markets throughout their undefeated national championship season in 2010 (10-3 ATS). 

Carolina suffered a pair of significant late season injuries to their secondary, losing cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Bene Benewikere to season enders.  That’s a concern.  But that’s about my only concern for this elite squad, and let’s not forget that Arizona just lost Tyrann Mathieu from their secondary as well, weakening their toughest competitor. 

In the AFC, the one team I’m willing to pull the trigger on for a future book wager is Cincinnati.  We all know that the Bengals have been abject failures when it comes to the postseason in the Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis era.  Lewis is 0-6 SU and ATS in the playoffs; with Dalton behind center for each of their last four losses.

But make no mistake about it.  When you grade out the Bengals personnel on both sides of the football, they’re the best team in the AFC heading into the playoffs.  And Dalton is still hurt, something the markets are viewing as a negative.  Not this bettor!  AJ McCarron isn’t short on big game experience, a guy who won two national titles in college with Alabama.  He’s got a QB rating of 97.1 since taking over for the injured Dalton; a better QBR than the likes of Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers.

There are two keys for me regarding Cinci.  First and foremost, every team in the AFC is vulnerable, particularly the two favorites for NFL picks. The Pats have massive injury issues everywhere while the Broncos have significant QB and OL concerns.  That leaves the door open for any team that gets hot in January.

And for all the Bengals playoff failures, all this team needs is one win to erase those doubts.  IF – and it’s a big if – Cinci can get past nemesis Pittsburgh on Saturday Night, they’re live to make a deep postseason run.

comment here