Updated NFL Picks for Making the Most out of Betting Week 11

Nikki Adams

Sunday, November 22, 2015 1:58 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 1:58 PM GMT

In this column we look at how week 11’s NFL betting lines are taking shape as game time approaches and revisit some of our early predictions and NFL picks.

Week 11 Early Preview
Early in the week we weighed in on the entire 14-game serving for week 11, looked at early NFL odds according to Odds Shark (See Table 1) and identified key matchups.

 

Table 1: Week 10 Opening NFL Odds As Per Odds Shark

MATCHUP

RECORD

ATS

SU

TOTAL

Titans

2-8 *

 

+140

 

Jaguars

4-6*

-3

-165

44

Broncos

7-2

-3

-130

 

Bears

4-5

 

+110

43

Cowboys

2-7

 

+105

 

Dolphins

4-5

-1

-125

46.5

Raiders

4-5

 

-125

 

Lions

2-7

EV

+105

48.5

Colts

4-5

 

+210

 

Falcons

6-3

-4

-260

46

Rams

4-5

 

+105

 

Ravens

2-7

EV

-125

42.5

Redskins

4-5

 

+265

 

Panthers

9-0

-7.5

-330

46

Bucs

4-5

 

+200

 

Eagles

4-5

-7

-240

46.5

Jets

5-4

 

-140

 

Texans

4-5

+2.5

+120

41

Chiefs

4-5

 

-160

 

Chargers

2-7

+3

+135

46

Niners

3-6

 

+587

 

Seahawks

4-5

-10

-763

41.5

Packers

6-3

 

+105

 

Vikings

7-2

EV

-125

45

Bengals

8-1

 

+160

 

Cardinals

7-2

-2.5

-185

48

Bills

5-4

 

+310

 

Patriots

9-0

-7.5

-400

49.5

Several matchups practically  leaped off the page, from the Packers entering their NFC North duel with the Minnesota Vikings on EVEN odds to the Broncos happy reunion with John Fox in the windy city albeit set to do battle without Peyton Manning under centre, and much, much more.

On the cusp of the weekend, there have been several notable moves which we highlight below along with some of our thoughts and predictions.

Broncos move from -3 to +1.5
While the Broncos would have us believe no Peyton Manning equals no problem, the sentiment isn’t echoed on the sports betting floor. In one of the biggest moves of the week, odds makers completely jump fence in this matchup moving from an offering of 3-points for the Broncos as the road chalk to a tender of 1.5-points as the road underdogs. Clearly, this has everything to do with the fact that the Broncos will be debuting Brock Osweiler at quarterback and in the absence of any tangible results the Broncos are downgraded. That the Broncos haven’t been winning on the strength of Peyton Manning’s play rather on the strength of their defense, which is one of the top defense in the league, appears to have been conveniently overlook. What’s also being overlooked is the Bears and their rather suspect home form, where they are just 1-3 SU this season and 3-9 SU since 2014. Granted Jay Cutler has looked good over the last two weeks, but then again look at the opponents he’s beaten. The Chargers and Rams are hardly amongst the best in the NFL. As it is, we can’t see how you cannot take the Broncos plus the points.

NFL Picks: Broncos +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline

 

Packers move from EVEN to +1
This isn’t the biggest move on the NFL odds board for week 11 but it’s significant in that it has the Packers moving into underdog territory. Granted the Packers are riding a three-game losing streak and appear to have lost the plot. But that is temporary, surely. One has to believe last year’s MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will figure things out. Not to mention the idea they would ride a four-game losing streak is just anathema. Of course, the Vikings’ season has had an impact on how this NFL betting market has developed. It’s hard to argue with a five-game winning streak that propels them into the NFC North penthouse. However, this is new territory for Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings. It’s one thing to be the underdog chasing the divisional standard Packers. It’s another to be the favourite, atop the pile and hold on to that position. We’ve yet to see what the Vikings are really made of when they are the target, which they are sure to be when the Packers roll into town. Not until the Vikings underscore their credentials at the top of the NFC North with a gauntlet throwing win over the Packers can we buy them as the favourites in this game.

NFL Picks: Packers +1 (-105) Betdsi

 

Ravens move from EVEN to -2.5
How on earth can the Ravens improve to 2.5-point home chalk when they can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try is beyond us. If last week’s last second gaff wasn’t enough to convince NFL bettors that the Ravens are completely and utterly off colour and form, what will? It was yet another grotesque breakdown in a game that the Ravens should have won. As it is, they are 2-7 SU on the season and 1-3 SU at home with their season nothing but done. They might as well start dusting off their golf clubs and thinking about their postseason vacations rather than practising for the weekend. Granted the Rams are coming off a woeful loss to the Bears at home, prompting Jeff Fischer to bench Nick Foles. That lends some uncertainty to this game. Still, the Rams have lots of weapons with which to hurt the Ravens and so long as Case Keenum sticks to the game plan the Rams should pull off the upset. They’ve got more vested in the W than the Ravens do.

NFL Picks: Rams +2.5 (-105) at Bet365

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