Updated Betting Trends & NFL Picks ATS For Week 5

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 10:53 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015 10:53 PM UTC

Week 5 of the NFL Regular Season kicks off on Thursday, so let’s take a look at three select NFL games where the betting trends, combined with current play of the teams, may offer some decent value in both the Sides and Totals marketplaces.

Let’s look at all of the latest on these three games which will kick off later in the NFL Week 5 Betting Board, and provide the strong Trends that support the NFL picks.


Sunday, October 11, 2015
Patriots -8, 50½ (MGM Mirage) at Cowboys (CBS, Directv 714, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas will be hopping on Sunday afternoon when the Dallas Cowboys (2-2 ATS, 1-3 SU) host the Super Bowl-champion New England Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) in a fun inter-conference affair from the Lone Star State. New England and QB Tom Brady (64-44-1 ATS on Road) have been on a roll to start the season and will be extremely well-rested, coming off an Open Date although Dallas will be getting LB Greg Hardy back here from his 4-game Suspension. But honestly, the banged-up Cowboys Defense looked extremely suspect vs. the Saints on Sunday night, the team lost its first Road game in 11 tries and America’s Team may have more Injuries that matter than anyone in the league, including starting QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant—both out—the always-hobbled TE Jason Witten and Rookie DE Randy Gregory (Ankle, expected back late October), among others, case in point. The word is that injured Cowboys’ QB Romo is coming along faster than anticipated, but Dallas has had no choice but to go with backup Brandon Weeden who has now lost his L10 consecutive starts. 

The last meeting between these two was in Foxboro in 2011 where the Patriots won 20-16 but failed to cover as 4½-point favorites while the last meeting here in the Big D was in 2007 where New England throttled the Cowboys, 48-27, easily covering the Point Spread as 5½-point chalks. The Patriots are 3-1 ATS the L4 vs. Cowboys overall and 9-2 ATS their L11 in Week 5. Organized New England (2-1 Overs) and Head Coach Bill Belichick (154-113-6 ATS) will probably eat Dallas alive here and this may be the best bet on the board in the NFL this week. And, the Over—46-19 ATS over the L65 Patriots games played on FieldTurf—is always worth consideration in New England games with the quick pace their Offense sets, their proven ability to score quick points and extremely sure-handed and dependable receivers like TE Rob Gronkowski (16 receptions, 308 yards, 4 TDs), WR Julian Edelman (30 receptions, 279 yards, 2 TDs) and WR Danny Amendola (8 receptions, 92 yards, TD). Toss in the emergence of the multi-purpose RB Dion Lewis (146 Rushing yards, 2 TDs; 179 Receiving yards), and you have an Offensive Machine, bent out outscoring everyone else in the NFL. It doesn’t get any better than that. The Patriots have scored 119 points (28, 40, 51) in just 3 games.

NFL Picks: Patriots -8 (MGM Mirage), Over 49 (The Greek)


Broncos -4½, 43½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) at Raiders (CBS, Directv 715, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The Denver Broncos (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) and 39-year-old QB Peyton Manning (74-58-5 ATS on Road) head to O.Co Coliseun in Week 5 to face the Oakland Raiders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) in this AFC West meeting and game which will be mush more important (to win) for the host Raiders at 2-2. Denver has totally dominated the division of late, going 19-1 SU over the L20 after Week 2’s win at Kansas City. Last season when these two teams played, the Broncos won and covered both, thrashing the Silver and Black in Oakland, 41-17 as big 13-point favorites in the first meeting, while Denver beat the Raiders, 47-14 and easily covered the Point Spread as 16-point chalks in Week 17. With the emergence of Raiders QB David Carr (77 completions, 922 yards, 7 TDs), Rookie (Alabama) WR Amari Cooper (24 receptions, 339 yards, 2 TDs), Free Agent-signee (Raiders) Michael Crabtree (23 receptions, 264 yards, TD) and RB Latavius Murray (68 rushes, 297 yards, 2 TDs, 4.4 ypc), Oakland (3-7 ATS L10 vs. AFC West) and veteran CB Charles Woodson (2 Interceptions) are the best it has been in some time, and this could end up being a very good and close game, but Denver and LB Von Miller have one of the best Defenses in the NFL (#1 Total Yards: 275.5 ypg; #1 Passing D: 185.2 ypg; #2 Points allowed: 17.2 ppg) and until someone in the AFC West actually beats Denver—which has some real talent in players like WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Emmanuel Sanders and RB Ronnie Hillman—backing the Broncos (12-3-1 ATS L14 vs. AFC West) is the flow.

The Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS the L7 overall vs. Oakland and Denver is a sparkly 4-0 ATS the L4 here at the O.co Coliseum. The Road team is 10-3-1 L14 in this series while the Over is 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings. Broncos Unders are 18-7-1 the L26 games in October, Denver Unders are also 6-2 L8 on Grass and the Broncos are 1-3 O/U to start this season, playing 4 games with all went under the posted 1st Quarter Total. And, Raiders Unders are 38-18 overall in the L56 games played in the month of October. Trends, trends, trends. The Advanced Line here was (Broncos) -6½. Expect Denver and its dominant Defense to control the pace of this game which could evolve/devolve into FG battle and keep Rookie WR Cooper in check to a degree as he starts to face more talented DBs and Defenses aware of his presence than the Bears and the Browns. Baptism by Fire.

NFL Picks: Broncos -4½, Under 43½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


Monday, October 12, 2015
Steelers at Chargers -3½, 45½ (Station Casinos) (ESPN, WatchESPN, Directv 715, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego is the site of this NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football game between the host San Diego Chargers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) and the Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 2-0-2 ATS) in what suddenly seems like a really big game for both after Thursday’s night’s embarrassing collapse by Pittsburgh and eventual Loss in OT against the Ravens. We will all remember that one. This Point Spread in this game seems to be all about the presence of Steelers backup QB Michael Vick, and his tendency to muck things up trying to run an Offense. Vick throws too hard, at odd angles, puts Receivers in jeopardy and Offensive Coordinators seem to choose to to roll Vick out—one of his few real strengths as a QB—at the wrong times in Possessions. Probably the safest thing to do would be to only roll him out on 1st and 2nd Downs and to have him throw shorter, more confidence-building pass routes. With flyboys like WR Antonio Brown, WR Markus Wheaton, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey and WR Martavis Bryant—back from a Suspension this Week 5—it’s definitely hard to try to revert to these shorter routes, but until Big Ben returns, Steelers OC Todd Haley should really try to tone down the game plan some in terms of these Middle and Deeper Pass Routes. Somebody’s gonna get hurt the way veteran southpaw Michael Vick throws a football and his uniform color will likely be Black and Yellow.

The last time these two teams played was in 2012 at Pittsburgh when the Chargers won outright, 34-24 as 7-point underdogs, while the last meeting here at Qualcomm Stadium was back in 2006 where the Bolts won 23-13 as 3½-point favorites. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS the L10 overall in this series—as is the Favorite—the Black and Gold is 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Southern California (but those games were all played a long time ago) and the Steelers are 6-2 ATS the L8 on the Road. The Chargers are an anemic 1-10 ATS L11 vs. the AFC and San Diego is 2-10 ATS the L12 on Grass and a nasty 3-12 ATS the L15 overall. This all screams to take Pittsburgh +3½ NFL odds where available, in a game it definitely can win outright (Steelers Money Line: +153, Pinnacle). The Under in Steelers games is 6-1-1 in the L8 while 7the Under in Pittsburgh games is 8-2 ATS the L10 played in October. Note: The L4 meetings in this series have all been at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh and the Advanced Line in this one (out last week) opened San Diego as 6½-point favorites, Yes, 6½, brother. (CG Technology, Station Casinos, Sportsbook.ag and Heritage all have 3½s posted (Wednesday morning).

NFL Picks: Steelers +3½, Steelers-Chargers Under 45½ (Station Casinos)

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