Updated Betting Trends & ATS NFL Picks For Week 4

Kevin Stott

Friday, October 2, 2015 12:47 AM GMT

Let’s take a look at a handful of games where the Trends may help create some profit when all the dust clears. So let’s take a fairly quick look at six games with value and offer up an NFL pick for each.

Thursday, October 1, 2015
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers 44 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 212, NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT): With the injury to Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, 36-year-old backup Michael Vick will have to try to patch Pittsburgh (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) through until Big Ben returns from the strained MCL in his knee (4-6 weeks), beginning here with his first start tonight (Thursday) against the Baltimore Ravens (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, vs. Bengals) and their star QB Joe Flacco (35-30-3 ATS on Road) in this AFC North showdown and Week 4 lidlifter from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.

The NFL Games of the Year (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) opened the Steelers as 3-point favorites in the Summer, so you can see that perception here is the combination of Roethlisberger’s absence with the Ravens desperation for their first win is worth about 6 points. The Ravens are opening the season up vs. San Diego-Denver-Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, but not only the talent of those four opponents, but the grueling travel involved with opening the season with two games out West (three Body Clock Time Zones behind), having three of the first four on the Road and the psychological reality of starting 0-3 and having all that Pressure.

On top of all this, the Ravens and Head Coach John Harbaugh (68-57-4 ATS) lost an awful lot of real talent in the Offseason (TE Owen Daniels, WR Torrey Smith, NT Haloti Ngata) and will have to come up with the near perfect game-plan here. Luckily for Baltimore (2-8 ATS L8), Big Ben is out and the world won’t end for the Steel Curtain (7-1 ATS L8) if they don’t get the win here. But for Pittsburgh, this is a chance to try to knock a ruin a rival’s season by sending them to 0-4, likely making the AFC North a two-team race between the Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 SU) from Fall to Winter.

Here, Steelers WR Martavis Bryant will still be out and serving the last game of his 4-game Suspension, but Vick will have the luxury of having much better Skill Position players (RB Le’Veon Bell, TE Heath Miller, WR Antonio Brown, RB DeAngelo Williams) than Flacco and Baltimore (2-6 ATS L8 Thursday) who has been relying heavily on veteran WR Steve Smith (349 yards) this season. Trend-wise, Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Ravens—not including the Playoffs—and in this Regular Season game here last year at Heinz Field, the Steelers rolled to a 43-23 victory as 2½-point favorites, although the last time they met here in the Steel City was in the opening round of the AFC Playoffs where Baltimore ousted the Steelers, 30-17 as 3-point underdogs.

With the Ravens (3-9 L12 ATS in October) having their backs up against the proverbial wall, the temptation is to think they will win because it’s a “must-win.” But this game is at Heinz Field and the Steelers simply have the better team and the Defense can play like it did last week against the Rams, the hosts should win this and backing Pittsburgh on the Money Line (+136, Pinnacle) with your NFL picks might be a nice route for the bold.

NFL Pick: Steelers +3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Sunday, October 4, 2015
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -9½, 47 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 708, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) and QB Andrew Luck (17-7-2 ATS at Home) welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday for this AFC South date. The Colts (11-2 ATS L13 in Week 4) are lucky they call the AFC South home where all three residents are sitting at 1-3, and can calmy jump to 2-2 (and into 1st place in the division) with a win and act like this choppy start hasn’t happened. The Advanced Line here was -7, and the Point Spread is (Colts minus) 9 most places today.

Expect a better performance from Indianapolis—whose Head Coach Chuck Pagano (25-18-1 ATS) said Monday this will be his last year at the helm—here and the Defense and entire team making a better effort to play hard right from the opening kickoff and for all four quarters. In this game here last season, the Colts won 23-3 as massive 13-point favorites, and Indianapolis—who went 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS vs. the AFC South—also won and easily covered (-5½) the meeting at Jacksonville, winning by 27 points (44-17). The Colts are 5-0 ATS the L5 vs. the Jaguars and 17-4-1 over the L22 against the AFC South, and with Fear always the strongest motivator in Life, the Colts should find a way to win this between 15-20 points.

NFL Pick: Colts -9 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (FOX, Directv 705, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Carolina Panthers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) and QB Cam Newton (20-16-1 ATS on Road) head to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Sunday to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, at Texans Sunday) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston in a big NFC South game from the Sunshine State for the hosts. Last season, the Buccaneers lost in this game, 20-14, and failed to cover as 4½-point favorites in Week 1 in Carolina while Tampa Bay covered, but lost as 3½-underdogs at Home in Tampa, 19-17. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS the L4 against the Buccaneers and it seems there’s still a pretty decent-sized chasm between these two teams. The Trends here point toward the Under, with the Under 7-1 ATS in the L8 in the series and the L3 meetings totaling 36, 34and 33 points. In the L11 games the Bucs have played on Grass, the Under is 10-1 ATS while the Under is 11-2 ATS in the L13 Tampa Bay games overall.

NFL Pick: Under 40 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Washington Redskins 47 (MGM Mirage) (FOX, Directv 711, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): After going with Kirk Cousins over Robert Griffin III at QB, the Washington Redskins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) are already remembering that they need to find a decent QB for The Future, here Sunday against a growing but somewhat loaded Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) side being led by QB Sam Bradford (14-12 ATS on Road). At FedExField in Landover in this Week 4 NFC East meeting, expect the real Washington (4-12 ATS L16 overall) to continue to show their ugly heads after a decent start, thanks in great part to the Redskins Defense and impressive Rushing game. Last season in this game here in Landover, the Eagles lost to Washington, 27-24 as 7-point favorites, while Philadelphia won 37-34 at Home in the return leg in Philadelphia, also failing to cover, this time as 4-point underdogs. With Washington 2-7 ATS the L9 at Home and the Road team 11-5-1 ATS over the L17 in this series, backing the Eagles and expecting them to have the much better Offense here and to cover the spread is the call here.

NFL Pick: Eagles -3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers -7½, 45 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 712, NFL RedZone, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT): If you like the San Diego Chargers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) against the Cleveland Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) here at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on Sunday afternoon in this AFC inter-divisional meeting, best bet the Bolts now and pay the premium to get the line down to -7 just to be safe (-7, -125 5Dimes). For QB Philip Rivers (42-34-1 ATS at Home) and San Diego, this date against maybe the worst team in the NFL is a welcome break after starting with the Lions, Bengals and Vikings in Weeks 1-3. The last time these two met was in 2012 when the host Browns edged the Chargers, 7-6, covering as 3-point underdogs in an one of the lowest scoring games in the NFL in the last decade, while the last meeting here in San Diego was way back in 2006 where the Chargers won 32-25, failing to cover as big, 12½-point chalks.

And although the Trends support the Browns for the most part here—Cleveland is 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. San Diego, 8-1 ATS L9 in Week 4, Chargers 2-9 ATS L11 on Grass, Chargers 3-11 ATS L14 overall—those numbers were forged with better Browns teams without a QB back-and-forth. With the Travel to California and the 3-hour Body Clock Time Difference (EDT v PDT), this may be a hard game for the Browns to find a way to get an edge, especially with Josh McCown (Probable) or Johnny Manziel trying to out-gun a real gunslinger in Rivers (890 yards, 5 TDs). And San Diego has better targets in WR Malcom Floyd (7 receptions, 147 yards, TD), WR Keenan Allen (29 receptions, 315 yards, 2 TDs) and TE Ladarius Green (10 receptions, 121 yards, TD) and the site (Qualcomm) and spot on the schedule all point to backing San Diego. But buy the hook.

NFL Pick: Chargers -7 -125 (5Dimes)

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals -6½, 43 (MGM Mirage) (FOX, Directv 713, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): The Arizona Cardinals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are a remarkable 20-7 ATS in their L27 games, so why aren’t you betting them every week? Yes, I was aiming this at you. Is a 74.1% winning clip not good enough? We see you, (Cardinals Head Coach) Bruce Arians (23-11-1 ATS). Well done sir. The Advanced Line here for this suddenly interesting NFC West matchup Sunday had Arizona -4 over the St. Louis Rams (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), and that it’s now up to -6½ at the MGM Mirage and at -7 everywhere else, you can see the Oddsmakers’ and General Public’s respect for what Arizona has done and their nice 3-0 start. Maybe last season wasn’t a fluke.

The Cardinals (+77 PD) have scored an NFL-high 126 points—in great part because of romps over the devolving San Francisco 49ers on Sunday (47-7) and the lowly Chicago Bears in Week 2 (48-23)—and with QB Carson Palmer (28-26 ATS vs. NFC West) back and healthy, WR Larry Fitzgerald (11 receptions, 134 yards, 2 TDs in win vs. 49ers on Sunday) putting up some nice numbers and the Cardinals Defense sound as usual, it looks like last season wasn’t a fluke. And w bringing consistency and the team playing better every week, Arizona may actually be able to make a run at an NFL Championship in their own stadium if they can dance the dangerous NFC Minefield to get there. The Cardinals are now a fantastic 24-11-1 ATS in their L36 Regular and Postseason games, and even though the St. Louis Rams (CDT) will be losing 2 Hours off their Body Clocks playing in the Sonoran Desert (MST), also seem to be on the upswing and that this is a big NFC West game, the Cardinals are now in a major groove and this one’s in Glendale (suburban Phoenix) at Home and this is a very underrated Homefield advantage which gets stronger each season. The Cardinals (8-1 ATS L9 Home) are for real. Find this at -6½ NFL odds if you can, as even (minus) 7s may seem scarce come Sunday afternoon.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -6½ (MGM Mirage).

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NFL Picks: Steelers +3 over Ravens, Panthers-Buccaneers Under 40; Colts -9 over Jaguars; Eagles -3 over Redskins (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook); Chargers -7 -125 (5Dimes); Cardinals -6½ over Rams (MGM Mirage)