Updated ATS Trends & Top Value NFL Picks For Week 11

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 20, 2015 2:29 PM GMT

Week 11 of the NFL Regular Season looks like it may have some landmines and after a historic Week 10. Where is the hidden value for our NFL picks for this week?

Sunday, November 22, 2015
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons -7, 47½ (5Dimes): Indianapolis Colts (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) starting QB Andrew Luck is out 2-6 weeks with a Lacerated Kidney, so here at the Georgia Dome on Sunday against the fading Falcons (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)—Atlanta has lost to the Buccaneers (4-5) and the 49ers (3-6) back-to-back—we’ll be seeing Matt Hasselbeck dueling the Falcons Matt Ryan (34-25-2 ATS at Home) in this big inter-conference game for both clubs. The Colts lost 31-7 getting 6½ points in Indianapolis the last time these two met in 2011 while in the last meeting here in Atlanta, the Colts won 31-13 and covered ATS as 13½-point favorites in 2007. The Colts are 4-2 ATS in the L6 meetings in this series and a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 here at the Georgia Dome. But that was with a healthy QB like Peyton Manning, so heading in without Stanford product Luck in a must-situation for both sides will makes this a tough handicap. Both teams come in off their Open Dates and 13 Days Rest. The Advanced Line from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was Falcons -3½, so you can see what the news Luck is definitely out has done to the Point Spread. There is still a (Colts plus) +7 at this point in time (Tuesday) in the marketplace (5Dimes) and with Indianapolis needing the game and being able to rally the troops in Luck’s absence—even if Chuck Pagano is a lame duck Head Coach—and the Dirty Birds slumping and having had Doubt creep into their collective heads for the first time of the season, backing the underdog Colts—who could very well win this game outright (Colts +229 Moneyline, Paddy Power) is logical call. These two teams are very close in talent and playing in a Dome (Colts 4-0 ATS L4 in Atlanta) will come naturally to this Colts bunch.

Free NFL Pick: Colts +7 (5Dimes)

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St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Pick ‘Em, 42½ (MGM Mirage): The St. Louis Rams (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) and sensational Rookie RB Todd Gurley (Georgia) head to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Sunday here in Week 11 to face the Ravens (2-7 SU, 1-7-1 ATS). Both of these slumping teams lost on Sunday in Week 10 play but in different manners as Baltimore fell victim to a Facemask Penalty with no time left, then lost on a FG with 00:00 left on the game clock to the Jaguars, 22-20 while the Rams were blasted by Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, 37-13. The last time these two played, the Ravens won 37-7 in St. Louis, easily covering as 5½-point chalks while the last meeting here in Maryland, the Ravens won 22-3 and got their backers the money as 9-point favorites in 2007. Baltimore and Flacco (31-26-2 ATS) may be worth backing in this inter-conference tilt and will be in a very foul mood after the way the Jacksonville game ended, although the news that the Rams will be starting Keenum at QB is actually good news for the visitors and a wise move by Head Coach Fisher (29-28 ATS). This will keep the NFL odds changing, so stay tuned.

The Advanced Line from the SuperBook here in Sin City actually had the Rams as 2-point favorites, so you can see how the Bears blowout in St. Louis affected perceptions of this Point Spread, actually flipping the favorite, even if just barely. But what can we expect here? Much Keenum handing the pigskin to Gurley (130 rushes, 709 yards, 5 TDs) for the Rams early on while the Ravens also try to scrape out points in a game where scoring may be difficult with the Weather forecast (The Weather Channel) of Showers and a High temperature of just 48°. These two teams have only played 5 times—Baltimore leads, 3-2—and the only meeting ever here at M&T Bank Stadium in Crab City saw the Ravens win that aforementioned 22-3 game back in 2007 which (obviously) went well under the low posted closing Total of 37. The other four meetings have all seen 37 or more points (44, 55, 37 and 68—OT) scored, but with these games all being played from 1996 to 2011 in four different stadia, these are exactly the type of Series Trends which can be rendered useless in a handicap and tossed out the proverbial window. After all the analyzing and research and Injuries and expectations and reality where St. Louis (6-14 SU L20 Road games) must win here, it honestly seems like the three biggest things here are that the Ravens—who have the worst ATS Record in the NFL at 1-7-1—are coming off of a freak last-second Loss and will be driven by that recent memory; that the Rams are going with Keenum over the embattled Foles at QB; and, maybe the most important thing here: That the game is being played in Baltimore.

Free NFL Pick: Ravens Pick ’Em (MGM Mirage)

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New York Jets -2½, 41½ (Sportsbook.ag) vs. Houston Texans: The New York Jets (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) head to NRG Stadium in Houston this Sunday afternoon to play the Texans (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) in a Week 11 AFC inter-divisional meeting from the Lone Star State and a game where it seems the hosts would have been definitely been favored a year ago. On Monday Night Football to close out Week 10, the Texans upset the Bengals in Cincinnati as 10-point underdogs, 10-6, as Houston (5-2-1 Over L8 on Grass) and JJ Watt extended their scoreless quarter TD streak to 10—hard to believe for a team which allowed 41 points to the Miami Dolphins in the 1st Half alone back in Week 7, the same game which saw this scoreless Defensive streak actually begin (2nd Half). Oh, to hear what Texans star Watt barked in the Locker Room at Halftime of that Fishy nightmare. The last time these two played, Houston won 23-17 in 2012 as 9½-point favorites at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, failing to cover ATS while the last meeting here in Houston saw the Jets top the Texans, 24-7 in Week 1 in 2009, winning outright as 4½-point underdogs at the old Reliant Stadium. The Jets (5-1 ATS the L6 in this series) and Head Coach Todd Bowles will be coming in off a nice 9 Days rest after losing to the Bills at MetLife on Thursday Night Football and will likely be going with starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Probable, Left Thumb) who was reportedly planning on having Surgery on his Left Thumb last Friday while Texans QB Brian Hoyer (Questionable, Concussion) is hurt and workhorse RB Arian Foster is out for the season for the hosts. Another good angle here in this game is the Under with the Jets possessing a strong Defense (20.4 ppg, #9 in NFL), needing the game so much and it being on the Road and Houston’s (222.4 Passing Yards pg, #8 in NFL) current aforementioned 10-quarter scoreless TD streak.

Free NFL Picks: Texans +2½ (Sportsbook.ag), Under 44½ (YouWager.eu)

 

Kansas City Chiefs -2½ -130, 44 (5Dimes) vs. San Diego Chargers: Alex Smith and the neurotic Kansas City Chiefs (4-5 SU, 4-5, W3) head to beautiful Southern California and San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday to face Philip Rivers and the Chargers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) in an AFC West Week 11 meeting. Last Sunday, the Chiefs shocked the Broncos in Denver, 24-13 for their third straight Win to improve their record to 4-5 and tie with the Raiders (4-5) for 2nd Place in the AFC West. Last season, Kansas City won 19-7 in Week 17 as a 3-point favorite, covering ATS, while in this meeting in San Diego, the Chiefs also won by 3, this time as 3-point underdogs. San Diego will be coming in off its Bye Week while Kansas City will be coming on off a tough game against the Broncos in Denver in which they pulled off the upset, completely shutting down Denver QB Peyton Manning with a great Defensive performance. The walking wounded Chargers are 0-3 ATS the L3 overall in this AFC West series and just 1-3 ATS the L4 meetings here in San Diego. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Chargers as 2-point chalks while the SuperBook Advanced Line was (Chiefs) Pick ‘em -120, so you can what San Diego’s poor season so far and incredibly injured Roster has done to both Oddsmakers and Sports Gamblers perceptions for this game and should also for your NFL picks.

Two fantastic Skill Position players, Chargers WR Keenan Allen and Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles are both done for the season and will be missing here while over at TrendMart where all your Trends are absolutely Free as a Sparrow, Kansas City is 6-2 ATS their L8 against teams with Losing Records although the Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their L8 games on the Road and will be losing 2 Body Clock Hours traveling from Missouri (CST) to the Golden State (PST) here. But the big things here are how beat up the Bolts are (Allen, Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Branden Oliver, Manti Te’o and 8 other Defensive players out) and how bad San Diego is ATS lately: 1-7 ATS L8 vs. team with Losing Record, 2-12 ATS the L14 against the AFC and just 3-13 ATS in their L13 games played on Grass (Qualcomm Stadium).

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -2½ -120 (5Dimes)

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NFL WEEK 11 TRENDS PICKS: Colts +7 (5Dimes), Ravens Pick ’Em (MGM Mirage), Texans +2½ (Sportsbook.ag), Texans-Jets Under 44½ (YouWager), Chiefs -2½- 120 (5Dimes)