Up Your NFL Pick Value With a Money Line Play on Bills +121 vs Jets

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 4:08 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2015 4:08 PM UTC

Rex Ryan returns to New York as the Bills take on the Jets in Thursday Night Football. Will his resurgent Bills take the wild card lead from the Jets and where do our NFL picks value lie?

Coming off of wins in Week 9, the 5-3 New York Jets host the 4-4 Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football to see who will be in second place in the AFC East behind the undefeated New England Patriots. The Patriots have the division all but wrapped up at this point, but the winner of this game will be in prime position to take one of the remaining Wild Card playoff spots. The early line had the New York Jets favored in this game by 3 points; however, that line has contracted to 2.5 points at almost every book. The O/U total opened at 44.5 on our NFL odds board, but has been steadily dropping and now can be found at 42.5 at sites such as Heritage.

One of the reasons for the line shifting to Buffalo is the health of the Jets coming into this short week. Three members of the secondary didn’t practice on Monday in Dion Bailey, Antonio Cromartie, and Calvin Pryor. Important cogs offensive lineman Willie Colon and Nick Mangold were also limited in practice. Number #1 and #2 wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker were also limited participants on Monday. Even kicker, Nick Folk, has been ruled out for Thursday’s game because of a strained quad suffered in the warmups before the game with the Jaguars. A new kicker will have to be signed before Thursday, but one would have to think that the Jets will be going for it on 4th down and questionable field goal distances in this game every time.

Of greater concern for the Jets is the health of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who played well last week with a torn ligament in the thumb of his non-throwing hand. It is very likely that Fitzpatrick has surgery on Friday after taking on the Bills, using the long layoff to heal before playing again against the Texans with a protective wrap on the hand. The healing time is 10-12 weeks after the surgery, but if he waits until after the season there is a chance of permanent damage to the ligament. Look for Rex Ryan and the Bills to dial up plenty of blitz packages against Fitzpatrick Thursday night.

And if blitz packages are what you want you will be seeing red on Thursday, as the Bills will be wearing some crazy alternate uniforms of that color. The Jets will be wearing solid green as well. Gross.

The Buffalo Bills come into this game with their offense clicking, especially in the running game. The Bills had two 100 yard rushers in their Week 8 game against Miami as LeSean McCoy ran for 122 yards and a touchdown, while Karlos Williams added 110 yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s going to be strength against strength in this matchup with the Jets being number one in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 80.6 YPG. The Jets also lead the league in rushing touchdowns allowed through 8 games with just two. The Bills on the other hand, are 2nd in the NFL with 141.6 YPG rushing and are tied for best in the league with 11 rushing touchdowns.

With injuries piling up for the Jets, and the Bills coming into this game relatively healthy, I like this spot for Buffalo coming into the short turnaround for that reason alone. The defensive line of the Jets is really their strong squad right now, but the Bills should have an answer for that with a very mobile Tyrod Taylor. I like the Bills straight up in this game, and will be taking them on the money line to get a little extra value  as one of my early Week 10 NFL Picks.

NFL Pick: Bills on the Money Line +121 at Pinnacle

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