Underdog the Play for Dolphins vs. Raiders Picks

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 2:11 PM GMT

The Raiders, still on the lookout for their first win of the season, will be the home underdogs for this visit of the Dolphins, who have lost two of their first three. Let's examine what kind of NFL betting value is out there for Week 4.

Odds Overview
For now, Miami is the favorite, giving away four points at a lot of the sportsbooks we've looked over. The O/U is trading at 41, with 41.5 also available here and there.

 

Miami Dolphins
After opening with a fantastic 33-20 home win over New England, the Dolphins have fallen off over the last couple of weeks.

In Week 2 they traveled to Buffalo and were thoroughly outplayed in a 29-10 loss as 1.5-point underdogs in the NFL odds. Then, this past weekend, Miami fell at home to Kansas City in a bad 34-15 loss as 5.5-point chalk.

In that defeat, Ryan Tannehill was 21-of-43 for 205 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions. He found Mike Wallace five times for 74 yards, with the touchdown caught by Brian Hartline, who finished with three receptions for 25 yards. The running game found some success, as Lamar Miller had 15 attempts for 108 yards.

Defensively, Miami was poor, allowing Alex Smith to have his way (three touchdown passes), with backup running back Knile Davis racking up 132 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries.

Against a team that was missing both its best offensive player in Jamaal Charles and best defensive player in Eric Berry, it was a very forgettable showing from the Dolphins. They really need to pick it up heading into a winnable Week 4 matchup.

Find Out Where the Sharps are Looking in Week 4!

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders, despite not winning any of their first three games, have managed to cover the spread twice already.

They found ATS success against both the Jets (19-14 loss as 6.5-point dogs) and Patriots (16-9 loss as 14-point dogs), but fell short in a blowout loss to Houston (30-14) as three-point underdogs in Week 2.

This past week, Oakland gave New England everything they can handle. Derek Carr wasn't outstanding by any means, but kept drives alive and almost led the Raiders to a game-tying touchdown late. He finished with 174 passing yards and spread the ball around nicely, finding nine different receivers.

With Maurice Jones-Drew out, the Raiders turned to Darren McFadden, and he tallied 18 carries for 59 yards and four receptions or six yards. It remains to be seen if Jones-Drew will be able to go Week 4 at home.

There's only one phase Oakland has really been successful in so far and that's defending the pass. While the Raiders are ranked #29 in passing offense, #31 in rushing and #31 in stopping the run, they're currently fourth in defending the pass. We'll have to see if they can put forth a more balanced effort this weekend.

 

NFL Pick
This is a series the Dolphins have dominated in recent years, having won three straight both straight up and against the spread.

A lot has changed, however, for this season, and this Oakland team has actually been a lot more competitive than people may think. Making the Patriots sweat at home is no easy feat, so credit the Raiders for showing up on the defensive end.

So, with that in mind, where should we go with our NFL picks? We see some value in backing Oakland in this spot, especially since Miami has looked awful over the past couple weekends. The Raiders will be gunning for their first win, and it could very easily come this Sunday against the unconvincing Dolphins.

NFL Pick: Raiders +4 at 5Dimes

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