Two Value Bets Worth Adding to Your Late NFL Picks for Week 6

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, October 17, 2015 8:03 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015 8:03 PM UTC

Swinger has been scouring the NFL odds all week and has come up with two late selections to add to your NFL picks. Let's see if he can sweep both these picks, along with his two other best selections earlier in the week and pad our bankroll.

2015 NFL Record (10-10 ATS)
Breaking even after five weeks is more than a bit disappointing but the bright side is we have 12 more weeks of regular season action and opportunities to fatten our wallets. For those who have not read my NFL picks article earlier this week you can do so right here. Right now we move on to the my two late plays so let's sweep these and then get ready for Week 7.


Texans +1 ½ vs. Jaguars
I highly doubt 1 ½ points the NFL odds makers are giving us are going to mean anything in this game other than making the Texans a nice team to tease at +7 ½. Nevertheless, why look a gift horse in the mouth and though many offshore bookmakers are hanging this one at a pick we will shop on over to sportsbooks like and take what they give us.

I realize the Texans have disappointed millions of fans and even more bettors this season with their 1-4 ATS mark but I see modest signs of improvement that will blossom against a gritty yet poor Jaguars team this week. Brian Hoyer will be under center in this one as the revolving door of quarterbacks continues in Houston. Hoyer may not be the rocket launcher that describes Ryan Mallet but he is the smarter and more decisive of the two. In addition he has an outstanding talent in DeAndre Hopkins and will have Arian Foster in his backfield after shaking off the rust in his return last week.

The Jags have the 31st ranked defense in terms of points allowed and that will allow even a middling QB like Brian Hoyer opportunities to strike, not to mention a talent like Arian Foster. Defensively the Texans should eat up the Jags here as Jacksonville checks in with the 27th ranked scoring offense (18.6 PPG). Imagine that the lowly Bucs sacked Blake Bortles six times in their 38-31 loss last week and now we introduce JJ Watt to the ole' blocking style that has been the Jacksonville offensive line. I am certain Watt is relishing the opportunity to add to his sack total this week.

Finally, the Jags are traveling to London in Week 7 to meet the Buffalo Bills. What a drag and if you don't think every one of them has that marked in a big red circle on their calendar than think again. They will be packing their bags before this one is through and if my calculations are correct the Jacksonville fans in attendance will be doing the same.

Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

And let's not forget the Texans have had 10 days to prepare after their 27-20 Thursday night loss to the Colts.

NFL Picks: Play the Texans +1½ at YouWager

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Bears vs. Lions -3
We should all thank our lucky stars that Detroit is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the number because if it weren't for their winless record through five weeks of football the NFL odds makers would have made them at least a touchdown favorite over a Bears team that is truly terrible. Detroit should have defeated Seattle if it were not for a blown call at the end of the game by the referee and played solid in defeat against the Broncos. The Lions are actually closer to an average team than their record reflects which makes me one happy camper.

While Matthew Stafford has not have fulfilled the expectations that he would be among the next legendary quarterbacks he is certainly not as bad as he has demonstrated this season. Some, if not many of his problems can be attributed to an offensive line that is in chaos and disarray. However that will take care of itself as Chicago is inept on both sides of the ball and Stafford has a few friends named Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate who will have monstrous games if the moon and stars align.

Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home.

NFL Picks: Play the Lions -3 at GTBets

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