Two Underdogs to Avoid With Your Week 15 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Thursday, December 17, 2015 10:34 PM GMT

In this weekly space we rummage through the NFL odds board in search of underdogs to avoid on your NFL picks. Find out which teams you should drop like a hot potato.

Top Dog To Avoid: Browns vs. Seahawks
Our top dog of the week to avoid on your NFL picks has to be the Cleveland Browns, currently trading anywhere from +14.5-to +16 across various sportsbook platforms. If Johnny Manziel was feeling any concern about his impending start at CenturyLink, those must have doubled after Browns’ coach Mike Pettine brazenly suggested Russell Wilson wasn’t one of the best quarterbacks in the league, almost going so far as to suggest he was pedestrian.

It’s bad enough facing the Legion of Boom on any given Sunday. Facing them when they’re all het up about their precious quarterback being dissed, well, that’s a whole lot worse. Why Pettine would send his organisation’s prized No.1 draft pick like a lamb to slaughter is anybody’s guess. Not for nothing, but things could get ugly in Seattle and in hurry. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks serve up a bagel the way the Bengals did last year in Manziel’s long-awaited debut.

Surprisingly, public bettors are piling on top of the Browns. Most likely, the allure of double-digit spreads is too irresistible. SBR consensus betting reports reveal 50.20% of tickets wagered on this game through contributing sportsbooks went towards the Browns as the road underdogs. Importantly, though, sharp money has gone towards the Seahawks. The 49.80% tickets wagered on the Seahawks amounts to 66.20% of the money risked on this game.

As mentioned above, the NFL betting lines on this game range from 14-16 or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. You can still find NFL betting lines on the lower scale and at good prices (juice). Heritage, for example, is still offering a 14.5-point line with -105 money line NFL odds.

NFL Pick: Seahawks -14.5 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Falcons vs. Jaguars
Last week, the Falcons featured on our Underdogs to Avoid piece. Sure enough, steering clear of the freefalling Falcons proved to be the correct move as they whimpered to a 38-0 loss to the Panthers. When we previewed the game, NFL betting lines were trading at 7.5-points. Although they closed at 8.5-points, it clearly wasn’t a problem at all and those late NFL bettors that backed the Panthers as the 8.5-point favorites cashed handily on their NFL picks.

Week 14’s debacle in Charlotte marked the Falcons’ sixth straight loss of the season, seventh loss in their last eight games. It also extended their losing run against the spread to nine straight games. Despite those glaring NFL betting trends, it would appear as if sharp money this week is on the Falcons in their second straight road game.

SBR consensus betting reveals that 45.15% of the tickets wagered on the Falcons actually amounts to 55.46% of the money. When there’s more money than tickets, it’s an indication of larger bets being placed. That’s usually a sign of sharp money.

This is somewhat fascinating given how poorly the Falcons are playing of late. Heck, they’ve lost the plot you could say. Granted the Jaguars aren’t your typical favorites from week to week in NFL betting to hang your hat on, but they are coming off a momentous 51-16 win over the Colts. That could have spill over effect in this game against a side that clearly doesn’t know what it’s identity is or what their purpose on the season is.

NFL Pick: Jaguars -3 (+100)

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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