After demolishing the NFL odds in 2016 and into early 2017, quintuple-champion New England Patriots are favored to defend their title at Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis. Are you ready for some football?
Final Record for 2016: 23-26-1 ATS, 5-10 Totals
Well then. If somehow you missed out on Sunday’s events, here’s the skinny: The New England Patriots are your five-time Super Bowl champions. They engineered the most ridiculous comeback in the history of the Big Game, coming back from a 19-point deficit in the fourth quarter to tie the Atlanta Falcons in the final minute. Then the Patriots won the coin flip and scored a touchdown in overtime, the first Super Bowl to go to extra time. But of course they did. Final score: New England 34, Atlanta 28.
We didn’t have an official NFL pick here at the home office, but if we had, it would have been the Falcons and the 'under.' Those were the sharp picks for this one, although the Falcons never did move from +3 to +3.5 the way we had hoped. And the total fell from 59.5 to 57.5 before kickoff, instead of hitting the 60-point mark. Where was all the public money on the Patriots and the 'over'?
Turns out there’s only so much tolerance out there for the Evil Empire. The Patriots were wearing the black hats at the Big Game, thanks to their association with Donald Trump. Aggrieved U.S. citizens turned to the Falcons instead as their team of choice for Super Bowl LI. Our expanded consensus report for Super Bowl Sunday shows bettors split almost evenly between the two sides, after the Pats had taken a sizeable lead in early betting. Whatever side of the political fence you happen to be on, this Trump-Patriots dynamic is going to be important moving forward.
But it hasn’t stopped the defending champions from opening as +475 favorites on the NFL odds board to win Super Bowl LII, which will take place at the new U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. That’s a rather short price compared to last year at this time when New England was tied with the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks at +900 1 once Super Bowl 50 was over. It’s even shorter than two years ago, after the Patriots had beaten the Seahawks at Super Bowl XLIX; Seattle was the +500 favorite at that point, followed by New England at +700. Once you’ve recovered from Sunday’s events, consider fading the Pats on the futures market. Buy low, sell high.