Trio of Plays to Add Value to Your Week 5 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, October 10, 2015 7:31 PM GMT

Swinger has been scouting the NFL odds all week and has come up with three late selections to add to your NFL picks. Let's see if he can sweep both these picks, along with his two other best selections earlier in the week, to move even further into the black.

2015 NFL Record (9-7 ATS)
My two NFL picks from earlier this week can be found here but now I have had time to digest all the information, opinions and injury reports that unfold as Sunday draws near. For those who did not catch my report in Week 4 we did the splits (2-2) but now it's time to sweep the board so take my hand and follow me!

 

Broncos (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Raiders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
We all see the inevitable loss for the Broncos, don't we? Their offense is driven by a guy who wears the name Manning on the back of his jersey but last time I checked Eli was still in New York and Peyton must be luxuriating in a tropical destination because the guy chuckin' for the Broncos doesn't resemble the future Hall-of-Famer we have come to know and love.

This Peyton Manning allows his defense to take over and then guides the offense ever so cautiously. It has worked but not without a great deal of luck this season. They needed a pick-six to beat a suspect Ravens squad, a rare bout of fumbleitis from Jamaal Charles to defeat the Chiefs, a game that was 14-12 against a subpar Lions team until they drew away late and a narrow victory over the Vikings at home last week in which they failed to cover the NFL odds. This edition of the Denver Broncos has more in common with the Orange Crush teams of old rather than the juggernaut they have been in recent years.

The Raiders may not be playoff bound but they are a team on the rise because they finally landed a legitimate quarterback in Derek Carr. Oakland is tied for 11th (with Denver) in points scored and I believe they will put up numbers at home against their most hated rival. Latavius Murray may not be able to chew many yards on the ground against a rugged Denver run defense but don't be surprised if he used as a safety valve target out of the backfield to run along the edge as all those Denver blitzers are attacking the backfield. The blitz packages that the Broncos run will also give burgeoning star Amari Cooper open space in the medium routes before the corners clamp down. The Raiders have been tossed around like a ragdoll by the Broncos in recent years but this is not the Broncos of old and neither are the Raiders.

NFL Pick: Play Oakland +5 ½ at Bovada

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Total (47 ½) - Redskins vs. Falcons
I am so stealing a page out of SBR colleague Jordan Sharp's book that I should be brought up on plagiarism charges. Earlier this week we did our weekly videos where we select a side and a total. By the time he was done waxing prosaic on why this total will go over I was ready to not only bet it but collect on it.

He's right. Just check out what he has to say in our totals video at about 3:30 in (after I mistakenly refer to Andy Dalton as AJ Dalton when touting over in the Denver/Oakland game) and he gives you the lowdown. Bottom line here is that the Falcons are scoring in bunches while the Redskins secondary has been deplorable. On the flipside the Falcons are surrendering all kinds of points but it doesn't matter because they score so many of their own.

Check these betting trends out:

Over is 9-2 in Falcons last 11 games as a home favorite.

Over is 6-0 in Falcons last six games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 6-0 in Redskins last six games following an ATS win.

Over is 4-1 in Redskins last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NFL Pick: Play Over 47 ½ at JustBet

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The Woodman’s Corner (2-2 ATS)
The Houston Texans seem to be doing everyone dirty as they cost the Woodman his best bet in Week 4 and have already lost the Thursday night affair against the Colts in Week 5. Fortunately Woodman did not chase his tail and bet them again this week but nonetheless he stands at 2-2 ATS on the young season but that's all about to change (one way or another).

The Woodman has declared that the Cardinals are ready to soar in Motown, lay the lumber and bet the farm on Arizona -3.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -3 at GTBets

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