Trends To Influence NFL Week 5 Picks - How To Bet Top Consensus Bets Patriots & Bengals

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 8, 2016 11:22 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016 11:22 PM UTC

Betting trends impact NFL lines and the direction in which they move over the course of the week. In this space, we look at week 5 top consensus bets Patriots and Bengals and serve up our NFL picks.


Patriots Bet Up To A High Of -12

Consensus betting: Patriots 62.33%
Not only are the New England Patriots the consensus bet according to tickets taken with SBR contributing sportsbooks but they also have the money cornered in their camp to the tune of almost 80% of dollars wagered. This is lopsided betting, featuring both public and sharp money – a consequence that sees the Patriots bet up from an opening -10.5 with the majority of sports betting platforms to a whopping -11.5 or, even, in some cases -12.

The Patriots were shut out unceremoniously by the Buffalo Bills, but all and sundry are sweeping that result under the carpet because Tom Brady is back and, well, it’s no secret the Cleveland Browns are an abysmal 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the season and in danger of barely making a dent. That it’s rare to have such hefty road favourites isn’t a deterrent it seems. At the time of writing, this is one of the most heavily bet games of the week and with such exposure the books will be rooting for the Browns to cover.

Normally, we’d be wary of such a road favourite and the unprecedented betting they are attracting in the market. The spectre of Tom Brady though looms large and his trials and tribulations over the Deflategate scandal have previously been a motivator (last season the Patriots reeled off ten straight wins to start the season). Then there is the bitter taste of last week’s defeat that simply can’t sit well with the Patriots or Bill Belichick who was rarely outcoached on a given NFL Sunday. Of course, one can’t underestimate the Browns. The Patriots certainly won’t. But it’s hard to back the Browns at the expense of the Patriots.

If you’re looking to shade the Patriots you’ll still find them trading at -10 with top-rated sportsbooks such as Bookmaker and Bet365, to name a few. Lay the points with the Pats on your week 5 NFL picks.


Free NFL Picks: Patriots -10  (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011253, "sportsbooksIds":[93,19,1096,139,1275], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Bengals Bet Up To -2.5

Consensus Betting: Bengals 62.51%
The Cincinnati Bengals emerge as one of the top consensus bets in week 5 NFL betting with 62.51% of tickets taken and a corresponding 77.99% of the money. That’s a rather intriguing NFL betting trend all things being considered.

Granted the Bengals are coming off a Thursday Night win over the Dolphins and have added time to prepare for their clash with the Cowboys, who played Sunday on the road in San Francisco –albeit a winning account. Is the public really that sold on the Bengals as they are in 2016? Or is this more about perception betting; that is, a manifestation of what the Bengals have accomplished over the last five seasons. Then again, it could be just part of a common NFL strategy to bet against a rookie quarterback in the face of a perceived heavyweight? We’d wager it’s more of the latter two than the former.

However, the Bengals haven’t convinced at the NFL betting floor. A far cry of the so-called heavyweight they were last season when they went 8-0 SU to start the season. Now, ahead of week 5 NFL betting, they are 2-2 SU and ATS on the season (losses to Denver and Pittsburgh). Their opening win over the Jets was a bit fortunate if not iffy, while their win over the Dolphins was way too straightforward to give NFL bettors a true sense of their merit.

By contrast, the Cowboys are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak, including the come-from-behind win at Levi Stadium. They are 3-1 SU and ATS on the season with a 6-point winning margin on average and a +4.8-point differential versus the spread.

Bookies opened this game on a PK line to suss out the public. Tale told, it’s been all Bengals money so far which sees the NFL line go up to -2.5 Bengals on the road. This could be an opportunity to fade the public and shade the Cowboys as the nominal home underdogs.


Free NFL Picks: Cowboys +2.5 (-110) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011260, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,180,123,999996,999991], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here