Trends Suggest Backing the Broncos Over Colts for NFL Picks

Jeff Grant

Friday, January 9, 2015 3:39 PM GMT

Denver has dominated opponents at home this season, which makes it a top NFL pick against red-zone challenged Indianapolis at Sports Authority Field Sunday.

Luck of the Draw
Indianapolis gets an opportunity to avenge a 31-24 season-opening loss to Denver as eight-point road underdogs, which is important to consider when making your playoff NFL picks, as it actually won the statistical battle by 47 yards in that affair.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck completed 33 of 53 passes for 370 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions on that September evening, but it’s important to point out that his team trailed 31-10 with just 9:54 remaining in the contest.

The former Stanford signal-caller makes this traveler a dangerous underdog against any foe, as he threw for a career-high 40 touchdowns this season.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 3-5 SUATS on the road with a betting total of 49.5 or higher.

 

Not So Fast
Denver isn’t scoring at its record-setting pace of a season ago, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL odds, but it has managed to average 29.2 points over its last six games—just above its 28.4 mark to start the year.

The Broncos will certainly benefit from an opportunistic bye week as the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, with quarterback Peyton Manning looking to put up strong offensive numbers against his former team once again.

Manning has thrown for 655 yards and six scores in two meetings against the Colts, with Luck just behind those numbers with 598 yards and five touchdowns.

Sports bettors will find that the squad is 24-3 SU and 16-9-2 ATS at home since acquiring the future Hall of Fame quarterback before the 2012 campaign.

 

(Lack Of) Defending the Red Zone
The Colts ranked last in the league in allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 66.7 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line—a number that actually rises to 80 percent when playing outside noisy Lucas Oil Stadium.

Indianapolis has really struggled to perform against balanced offenses this season, with all five of their losses coming versus such opponents: Dallas, Denver, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and New England.

 

Not a One-Trick Pony
The Broncos were the only team in the league to rank in the top five in both total offense and total defense, which means that sports bettors need to take a look at the entire picture and not just No. 18 under center.

Denver has the ability to pressure luck with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware on the outside, while maintaining balance on the other side with running back C.J. Anderson.

Want More? Read Our Colts vs. Broncos Betting Guide Here

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Broncos as one of their playoff selections, as they’ve gone 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points the last two-plus seasons.

NFL Pick: Denver Broncos -7 at Bookmaker