Trends Suggest Adding Rams +14 vs. Seahawks to NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, December 26, 2014 2:29 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 26, 2014 2:29 PM UTC

Our SBR consultant gives us a preview on the St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks matchup and culminates with a free NFL pick.

Perception/Reality of the Game

St Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-13) 4:25 PM EST
Each week in the Pointspread Prognosis, I seek a contrary play. In the contest, I look for a team with whom the public and line maker have fallen in love. This provides great value with a reversal of form at an inflated point spread. Today’s selection is a classic example of that.  For the line maker has followed the public’s love of Seattle to install them as a 13 point favorite on the NFL odds in this closing game of the season.

There is good reason for the public and line maker to love Seattle. At 11-4 SU, and tied with Arizona for the division lead, they hold the possibility of getting the #1 seed in the NFC with a victory. Current form tells us that the defending champs could well be on their way to successfully defending their title. On November 16th, Seattle dropped a 24-20 decision at Kansas City. Since that time, they have gone on a late season run keyed by a running game and defense that have truly been remarkable. That five game run began with consecutive division victories of 19-3 vs Arizona and San Francisco. A 24-14 win at Philly was sandwiched in the middle prior to Seattle beating those very same division opponents by scores of 17-7 and 35-6. In all, the five game run has seen Seattle outscore the opposition 114-33, holding their foes to less than 7 PPG. In last week’s 35-6 destruction of Arizona, the Seahawks outrushed the Cards 267-29, while outgaining them 596-216. Seattle now has the best running game in the NFL, as they are averaging 170 RYPG, while holding the opposition to just 83 RYPG. With a defense that is allowing just 16 PPG and 4.9 YP play, it is hard to play against this team. Earlier this season, Seattle lost 28-26 at St Louis, setting up a situation which finds Seattle HC Carroll to be 5-1 ATS with revenge.

But this is the Super Bowl for the visiting St Louis Rams. It is also the type of situation in which they perform the best. Yet no one will want them after witnessing last week’s 37-27 loss to the New York Giants. In that game, the Rams had a -3 net turnover ratio, and allowed 514 yards. At 6-9 SU with a pair of consecutive losses, it would be easy for the Rams to toss the towel.

But I have long ago learned that when it looks this easy, we must look the other way. St Louis HC Fisher will clearly have his Rams prepared for this meeting. St Louis plays their best against Seattle, with a 4-1 ATS series record. While Fisher is 7-1 ATS getting 10 or more points, the Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS playing double digits. Make St Louis your perception/reality NFL pick of the week. 

NFL Pick: Take St. Louis Rams +14 at 5Dimes

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