Trends Suggest Adding Bills -5.5 vs. Raiders to Your NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 17, 2014 1:25 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014 1:25 PM UTC

The Buffalo Bills look to extend their winning streak in week 16 NFL betting and finish on a positive note for the first time in almost a decade. Find out what NFL odds are trading on the NFL odds board and where the value NFL picks are to be had.

Buffalo Bills (8-6 SU, 3-3 SU away)
The Buffalo Bills are after one of the biggest upsets of week 15 NFL betting, sending seismic shockwaves en route to a stunning 21-13 win over the Packers and their potent offense. The Bills are enjoying a winning season and could finish with more than eight wins for the first time since going 9-7 in 2004.

The most impressive aspect behind the Bills' season is not just their dynamic defense, which is largely responsible for their success, but rather the bold decision to bench EJ Manuel in favour of veteran, journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton. That decision could have gone either way naturally. At one point it looked like it might backfire as the Bills remained a .500 team despite the change from Manuel to Orton.  However, fast-forward several weeks and the career second-string quarterback's level-headed play (playing within himself mainly and doing nothing spectacular) has given the Bills the best possible chance of a winning season over the last decade.

Next up for the Bills is what appears to be a straightforward clash with the Oakland Raiders; that is, if the NFL odds board were any indication. Bills descend on Oakland as the -260 SU favourites to win outright and the -5.5-point favourites on the road against the spread. Early NFL betting trends reveal 57% of public betting is staked in a Bills road win and cover.

Oakland Raiders (2-12 SU, 2-5 SU home)
A week after masterminding their second upset of the season with a home win over the Niners, the Raiders slipped to their 12th defeat on the season at Arrowhead. It was payback by the Chiefs for their loss to the Raiders in week 12 NFL betting.

Raiders were overwhelmed 31-13 by the Chiefs, as the hosts went on to win and cover for their NFL backers. Derek Carr went just 27-of-56 for 222 yards and threw a meaningless touchdown pass in the final minute. He was sacked 4 times and fumbled a snap that resulted in a Kansas City touchdown.

Still, over the last four weeks of NFL betting the Raiders are 2-2 SU, playing better for their interim coach Tony Sparano than they did for the previous guy. Overall, on the season, the Raiders 7-7 ATS with 12-point margin of defeat and 3-3 ATS at home with a 6.5-point margin of defeat. In their last four games, they are 2-2 ATS with a 9.25-point margin of defeat, outscored 61-to-90 thanks to the 52-0 blowout by the Rams.

NFL Betting Verdict
It's hard not to be impressed by the Bills' win over the Packers last weekend. It was a legitimate win earned by fierce defending and coolheaded offensive plays. As such, NFL bettors piled onto the Bills in early NFL betting markets, so much so that bookies are steadily increasing the NFL lines in favor of the Bills. Some sportsbooks are trading the Bills at 5.5-points while some have gone up to 6-points.

If these trends continue, the NFL line could continue to swell. Therefore, if you fancy the Bills on your NFL picks, this is the time to jump on the NFL betting line before it swells further and hits a high of seven-points (or more even). If you can find NFL lines at 5.5-points or less, even better. Simply put, Bills offense doesn't typically blow the opposition off the field so the higher the points go the riskier the Bills are going to be on your NFL picks. The Bills only won three games by double-digits, twice against the New York Jets (43-23 and 38-3) and once over the Browns (26-10). Those points were behind the combined efforts of both defense and offense as well. More often than not the Bills play opponents close and win narrowly.

NFL Free Picks: Bills -5.5 at 5Dimes

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