Trends Reveal Which Super Bowl Odds Bettors Should Keep An Eye On

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, January 20, 2016 1:24 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2016 1:24 PM GMT

We highlighted the top betting angles for those looking to go over the NFL odds with a microscope while avoiding a overload of unworthy information before placing any picks for Super Bowl.

Sides and totals betting odds is just a small part of the festivities, with literally hundreds of prop bets coming in all kinds of different forms. Nevertheless, for most fans it is about the game (well the commercials and parties also), and trying to sort through the intel can become mind-numbing. Considering the spread should be quite close, what should you be checking into to help make your decision?

 

Teams that Rush the Ball More
While this is considered old school approach, it still works. Being able to run the ball creates two advantages. If a team has success early in the game, this means they are controlling the line of scrimmage, which invariably helps the passing game. If a team with a lead is successfully able to do this in the fourth quarter, they are salting games away. In all, the club that has the most rushing yards are 37-12 SU and 34-12-3 ATS, 73.9 percent.

 

Yards Per Pass Attempt Matter
This will often be a meaningful number, because it directly relates to the number of big plays a quarterback will complete (or not), which has a direct impact on the final score. Here we are able to plainly see this matters with 41-8 SU and 36-11-3 ATS marks. Take the time to study not only how the quarterbacks perform in this situation, but how the defenses all do.

 

Understanding Super Bowl Totals
The old axiom - Defense Win Championships - applies to the outcome of the game, not necessarily what the final score is against the oddsmakers total. Though a few quarterbacks have won the Big Game despite unimpressive careers, they could be counted on when needed that particular season, contributing to total being 19-11-1 OVER in the Super Bowls with official listed totals. Having an elite signal caller often will lead to points, as this stat back up. Since we believe the spread will be close and total will reach at least 47, if the game plays out as anticipated, both clubs will reach 20 points, leading to 10-1 OVER record.

 

Betting the Money Line
This is about as rudimentary has it gets. Pick the correct winner, invariably you pick up the cash. The money line winner is sensational 40-6-2 ATS, 86.9 percent . Having those kind of odds makes it easy, right?

 

Betting Favorites is Mediocre
Of the 49 Super Bowls (in truth, there has been 47, the first two were known as the AFL-NFL World Championship Game before the 1970 merger), the favorite has won 31-18 SU. It is an accepted fact bettors prefer to back the favored team and do so accordingly. In the last decade or more, where football wagering as helped catapult the sport into its No.1 status, money line wagers have become more important, with bettors looking for the bigger payout of backing the underdog to win. This has become the norm since over time, backing the favorite in this contest has not been profitable at 22-24-3 ATS.

 

Betting Third Down Conversion Numbers
All season long we hear about the importance of converting on third down and how it impacts the outcome. However, when you boil it down to single game, this becomes a meaningless if not negative statistic. The last 14 squads that held the edge in third down conversion rates are paltry 4-10 ATS in the Super Bowl.

 

Betting Better Run Defense Will Lose You Money
Previously, we mentioned that winning the rushing yards battle picked up a dramatic amount of spread winners. Thus, it would seem if one team was more accomplished in stopping the run, they too would be a good wager. WRONG! The past has almost nothing to do when forecasting winner if a club is more skilled at containing the run with atrocious 3-11 ATS record in past 14 Big Games.

Continue Reading: Super Bowl 50 Odds Movement On All Four Conference Contenders

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