Trends Make ATS the Best Bet for Broncos-Bengal NFL Picks

Jeff Grant

Thursday, December 18, 2014 5:23 PM GMT

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2014 5:23 PM GMT

Peyton Manning has never lost to Cincinnati in his career, which makes Denver a top pick when being featured on Monday Night Football.

Crunch Time
Denver clinched the AFC West division last week by winning its fourth consecutive game, which is important to consider when making your pro NFL picks, as it now attempts to secure a first-round bye in the upcoming playoffs.

The Broncos are the only NFL team to rank in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense—resulting in a +91.3-yard advantage over opponents and producing an 11-3 SU and 7-7 ATS record.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise has won and covered the number in six of its seven opportunities as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points, with the OVER going 5-2 in that situation.

 

Trend Reversal
Cincinnati had built a reputation as one of the league’s top home teams since drafting quarterback Andy Dalton, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL odds, but it has dropped back-to-back games at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals will need to control the line of scrimmage in this high-profile matchup, especially on the defensive end due to the Broncos averaging 164.8 rushing yards over their last four games, but the stop unit has limited foes to just 71.6 yards in that category this year.

Sports bettors will find that the squad is 5-6 SUATS at home with a betting total between 45.5 to 49 points since the start of the 2012 campaign.

 

Get On Your Horse
Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning lands in a very favorable spot, as he’s won all eight of his previous starts against the Bengals, while he’s compiled a dominating 22-1 SU record against AFC North competition.

Manning’s numbers have fallen off a bit due to the team’s emerging run game, but you must respect the fact that he’s won his last eight regular-season road games in December and January.

 

Turn Off the Lights
Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton often falters in high-pressure situations—clearly evident in his 2-6 SU record when playing in primetime.

Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green have both put up solid offensive numbers in two previous games against the Broncos, with the signal-caller completing 53-of-83 passes for 631 yards and three touchdowns with a single interception, while his main target has 17 catches for 223 yards.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Broncos as their NFL pick, as the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this AFC series.

Free NFL Pick:  Denver Broncos -3 at Pinnacle 

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