Trends Favor 'Over' Bet in Redskins-Cowboys TNF Matchup

redskins cowboys

David Schwab

Wednesday, November 29, 2017 1:23 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017 1:23 PM UTC

In what could boil down to a playoff elimination game between bitter NFC East rivals, the 5-6 Redskins head into AT&T Stadium Thursday to face the 5-6 Cowboys in an 8:25 p.m. (ET) kickoff on NBC. Dallas comes in as a home underdog.

Free NFL Pick: Over 44Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)

The Redskins got back on track last Thursday night after losing four of their previous five games with a 20-10 victory over the New York Giants as 7-point home favorites. They are now 5-6 both straight-up and against the spread, with the total going OVER or closing as a PUSH in seven of the 11 games. Washington has gone 3-2 ATS in its first five road games this season.

This is a make-or-break game for the Redskins as far as their already slim playoff chances in the highly competitive NFC. They continue to move the ball down the field through the air with Kirk Cousins at the helm with an average of 251.7 passing yards per game. He has thrown for 3,038 yards and 19 touchdowns against six interceptions. One of the big issues for Washington this season has been the inconsistent play on a defense that is ranked 25th in the NFL in points allowed (25.1).

Dallas All-Pro running back Ezekiel Elliott has served the first three games of his six-game suspension, and his team has dropped all three outings by a combined score of 92-22. This slide has dropped the Cowboys to 5-6 both SU and ATS and on the brink of elimination from a return trip to the postseason after winning the NFC East last season at 13-3. Dallas is 2-4 ATS at AT&T Stadium this season and the total has stayed UNDER in its last four games overall.

Without his lead back in the lineup, second-year quarterback Dak Prescott has rapidly spiraled downward over these last three games with zero passing touchdowns against five interceptions. He has also been sacked 14 times. The Cowboys’ offense has basically ground to a halt while the defense has gotten gouged for an average of 30.7 points per game in the absence of linebacker Sean Lee, who remains out of the lineup with a bad hamstring.

Game Betting Trends
  • The Redskins have gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a SU win and they have failed to cover in four of their last five division games. The total has gone OVER in nine of their last 12 games in the division.
  • The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games coming off a SU loss. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven home games against a team with a SU losing record on the road.
  • Head-to-head in this NFC East matchup, the road team has covered in the last seven meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last four.

The Verdict

Desperation can sometimes bring out the best in a team despite its current from. Since both of these clubs are clinging to their playoff hopes by a thread, Thursday night’s matchup should remain competitive for all four quarters. You already know that Washington is going to put some points on the board, and I am banking on Dallas snapping out of its offensive funk to do the same.

While I am not sure which team actually wins, my top NFL pick with the help of SBR NFL Odds is the OVER on the current 44-point total line.

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