Totals Plays for Week 10: Points Tough to Come by in Pats-Broncos

Doug Upstone

Friday, November 10, 2017 3:48 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 10, 2017 3:48 PM UTC

For just the second time this season, all but two of the totals of NFL games to be played are in the 40s. Thus, there are not expected to be many lower- or higher-scoring games this week.

To date, we are churning right along on NFL picks on totals this season at 16-7-1 (69.5 percent), and given I looked at this week's games and essentially made my choices on Monday, I feel rather confident of delivering at least a winning week and maybe even more! Turns out I did not like the NFL odds on either contest not in the 40s and will go along with the general theme this Sunday.


Don't Be Fooled By Rising Total in Hoosier State

Those betting football have chased an AFC affair between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis from 43 to 45. It is understandable why, when you look at the Colts being last in the NFL in points allowed at 28.6 per contest and the Steelers having the players to put up that many points or more. But here is the deal: Pittsburgh is more of a running team these days with Le'Veon Bell, and the Steelers offense is a not very explosive, averaging 21.9 points a game. When looking at the other part of the equation, the Indy offense chimes in at only 18 PPG and Pittsburgh's defense is a sturdy 16.4 PPG. Go against the public on this one (over 90% of bets placed on OVER).

Free NFL Pick: Under 45Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Saints vs. Bills Ripe For the Taking

With the total in this interconference encounter drifting downward to 46.5, there are reasons to think why. Though the Buffalo defense had a off game on a short week in New Jersey last Thursday in losing to the Jets 34-21, the Bills' body of work for the season has them allowing just 18.6 PPG. And what about New Orleans? During their current six-game winning streak, the Saints have only surrendered 15 PPG. While those are inarguable figures, when putting on the miners' headgear with lamp, I dug up the Bills are 11-1 OVER at home the past two years, and road teams like the Saints scoring 27 or more points a game after allowing 14 points or less in two straight contests when the total is between 42.5-49 points are 37-10 OVER the past 34 years -- with average total score of 54.4 points.

Free NFL Pick: Over 46.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Sunday Night Football Total

Denver is on a four-game losing streak and the details are even worse. The Broncos have committed 13 turnovers in this ghastly stretch. Because of pathetic quarterback play and the offensive line not moving bodies around, Denver has averaged 14 PPG in its last half-dozen trips to the gridiron. And now starting Brock Osweiler again vs. an improving New England defense that has given up 12.7 PPG in past four ballgames? Will the Broncos score much? They probably will not. With that determined, let's move to the other side of the ball. The Patriots have been kicking a lot of field goals lately, and in their last four skirmishes have averaged 21.7 PPG. Now back home, you know the Denver defense will be extremely fired up after permitting 51 points to Philadelphia, and Broncos are 13-3 UNDER after conceding 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.

Free NFL Pick: Under 46.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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