Total Predictions & Free NFL Picks for Every Week 11 Game

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 19, 2015 6:22 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015 6:22 PM GMT

Let’s take look at all 14 games on the NFL Week 11 Regular Season schedule from a Totals point of view to decide on the best NFL picks available on the market right now.

Thursday, November 19, 2015
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 

TV: NFL Network, Directv 212, 8:25 p.m. EST/5:25 p.m. PST
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 60% chance of Rain, 71°, Winds NW 5-10 mph, 90% Humidity
Point Spread: Jaguars -3 (Even, bet365)
Lowest Total in Market: 42½ (Pinnacle, Bet365—Over -128)
Consensus Market Total: 43
Highest Total in Market: 43½ (Sportsbook.ag, Bookmaker, CarbonSports.ag)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Over is 6-3 in Jacksonville games and 5-4 in Titans games so far this Regular Season, but the L3 games in this series have gone Under the Total with just 34, 20 and 36 total combined points scored with the last meeting here at Everbank Field in Jacksonville seeing the Jaguars win 21-13 in Week 16 last year, going under the posted Total of 39 by 5 points. The Over is 6-2 in the Jaguars L6 Home games vs. the AFC but the Under is 18-7-1 ATS in the L26 against the AFC South—a fairly significant Trend as it’s measured three times a year, every year. And maybe the most relevant recent Trend: The Under is 8-2-1 ATS in the L11 meetings in this series. Still, too close to call with Mariota and Bortles and the recent Primetime TV Over stigma and it also looks like there could be Thunderstorms in Jacksonville on Thursday and possibly a heavy EverBank Field (Grass).

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Sunday, November 22, 2015
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers

TV: FOX, Directv 710, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Sunny, 49°, Winds N 5 to 10 mph, 41% Humidity
Point Spread: Panthers -7 (BetVictor)
Lowest Total in Market: 45
Consensus Total in Market: 45
Highest Total in Market: 45½ (Bookmaker, CarbonSports.ag, The Greek)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: Total-wise, Carolina is 5-3-1 O/U while Washington is 4-5 this Regular Season and the Over is 5-2-1- in the Panthers L8 games. The last game played here in this series in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium (Grass) was in 2011 where Carolina won 33-20 and the game sailed Over the posted Total of 44½ but the Under in 6-1 ATS the L7 in this series with 6 of those 7 games seeing final scores with 37 points or less (34, 53, 37, 30, 37, 31, 37). The Redskins and Cousins are feeling good while the Cats are looking to remain unbeaten.

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Oakland Raiders vs. Detroit Lions
TV:
CBS, Directv 707, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Indoor stadium, Ford Field
Point Spread: Raiders -2 (Pinnacle)
Lowest Total in Market: 47½ (Sportsbetting.ag, BetOnline)
Consensus Total in Market: 48
Highest: 48½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Bookmaker, The Greek, SIA, CarbonSports)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Over is 18-6-2 in the Raiders L26 games while the Under is 12-5-2 ATS in the Raiders L19 games played in Week 11 but this are the type of random Trends probably best enjoyed and observed but not acted upon. Oakland Overs are 6-2-1 this season while Detroit is 5-4 Overs, but 3-1 here at Home in Motown. With the host Lions having nothing to lose and a slinging QB like Stafford and nice RBs (Bell, Abdullah) and WRs (Johnson, Tate) with which to work and the upstart Raiders and Carr also having his share of Toys (Cooper, Crabtree, Murray, Smith, Streater) this one should have close to 50 points or more scored in it. When these two last played back in 2011, Detroit won 28-27 in Oakland as 3-point favorites, giving the Raiders the ATS cover while the last meeting here in Motown, the Steve Mariucci-coached Lions won 23-13 in 2004, covering and winning outright as 3-point underdogs but that game (Total 39) was the only one to go under in the L5. The Over is 4-1 ATS in the L5 in this series with high scores totals of 65, 57, 36, 58 and 69 in those games. Smells like points in a comfortable indoor setting at Ford Field (FieldTurf). Pick: Over 47½ (BetOnline)

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
TV: FOX, Directv 711, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Cloudy, possible Thunderstorms, 80°, SSW to 11 mph, 77% Humidity
Point Spread: Pick ‘Em (-1, Pinnacle)
Lowest Total in Market: 46½ (Treasure Island)
Consensus Total in Market: 47 and 47½
Highest Total in Market: 47½ (Pinnacle, Coast Casinos)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: Tony Romo (Probable) is slated to return here for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11 and most of the Totals Trend point to the Under and it would be easy to get on that bandwagon if Romo wasn’t returning and America’s Team wasn’t so desperate. The Under is 12-4-1 ATS the L17 Dolphins games in the month of November while the Under is 7-0-1 ATS the L8 Miami games in Week 11 but probably the strongest Trend here is the Final Scores in the L8 meetings in this series in which only two games (57, 61) have seen more than 39 points scored (39, 20, 39, 30, 31, 34 in the other 6). The last meeting here in Miami Gardens in South Florida at Sun Life Stadium (Grass) saw Dallas roll to a 37-20 win in 2007 with the game soaring over the closing Total of 40, but even with Romo back and Sunny skies, it seems getting up and over that 47 or 47½ may be tough for a rusty team and another looking to protect its Home soil. Pick: Under 47½ (Pinnacle)

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons
TV: CBS, Directv 705, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Indoor stadium, Georgia Dome
Point Spread: Falcons-6 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Lowest Total in Market: 47 (SIA, CarbonSports.ag, Bovada)
Consensus Total in Market: 47½
Highest Total in Market: 47½ (Many sportsbooks)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Over is 9-1 ATS in the Colts L10 games in November but that was with a healthy QB Luck. The Under is 16-5 ATS in the Falcons L21 games in November, the Under is 7-2-1 in Atlanta’s L10 games on FieldTurf (Georgia Dome) and the Under is 15-5-1 the L21 Falcons games overall. The L5 meetings in this series has seen 38, 44, 45, 68 and 49 points while the L3 in Atlanta have seen 44, 49 and 51 points with Peyton Manning and the Colts winning 31-13 and covered ATS as 13½-point favorites in 2007, with the Total trickling over the Total of 42 by 2 points. Both teams come in off their Open Dates and 13 Days Rest and need Wins and with Hasselback and Ryan in the saddles, the ball will be in the air a lot and if there has to be a lean—and there doesn’t—that lean would be to the Over here with so many Skill stars like Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, TY Hilton, Frank Gore and Andre Johnson.

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St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
TV: FOX, Directv 709, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Generally Sunny, 46°, WNW to 14 mph, 42% Humidity
Point Spread: Ravens -2 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 41 (Many places)
Consensus Total in Market: 41 and 41½
Highest Total in Market: 42 (Peppermill)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: These teams have only played 5 times in their history (Ravens lead 3-2, Ravens 128 PF-Rams 101 PF) so there is isn’t much to work with and probably the best handicap is weighing where both teams are at right now—St. Louis has decided to start Case Keenum at QB over Nick Foles this week—and the weather, which looks to be chilly. The last meeting here in Crab City, the Ravens won 22-3 and the game went well Under the 37 Total. The Over is 11-4 in the Rams L15 games in November but the Rams are 3-6 to the Total this season—Baltimore is 5-4—and dictate a slow pace with its solid Defense because despite star Rookie RB Gurley, the Offense has been pretty anemic. Pick: Under 42 -129 (bet365)

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New York Jets vs. Houston Texans
TV: CBS, Directv 708, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Sunny, 60°, N at 10 to 15 mph, 45% Humidity
Point Spread: Ravens -1 (YouWager)
Lowest Total in Market: 41 (Many places)
Consensus Total in Market: 44½
Highest Total in Market: 44½ (Youwager)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: Only one sportsbook on both the Don Best and oddschecker NFL odds screens—YouWager.eu—is showing both a Point Spread and Total for this game as the availability of both New York starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Probable) and Houston starting QB Brian Hoyer (Questionable) are in question. The last time these two played, the Texans won 23-17 in 2012 as the game went Under the posted Total of 40½ by 1½ points at MetLife Stadium, while in the last meeting here in the Lone Star State saw the Jets top the Texans, 24-7 in Week 1 in 2009, with that game going Under the posted Total of 44 at the old Reliant Stadium in Houston. Texans Overs are 5-3-1 this season while Jets Overs are 5-4. Pick: Under 44½ (YouWager.eu)

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
TV: FOX, Directv 713, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Mainly Sunny, 47°, WNW 15 mph, 42% Humidity
Point Spread: Eagles -5½ (Heritage)
Lowest Total in Market: 45 (Bovada)
Consensus Total in Market: 45½
Highest Total in Market: 45½ (YouWager.eu)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: Sam Bradford is listed as Doubtful so Mark Sanchez may get the start here for the Eagles against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Under is 8-1 ATS in the L9 November games the Buccaneers have played, the Under is 10-4 ATS in Tampa’s L14 games vs. the NFC and the Under is a fairly strong 13-6 ATS in the Bucs L19 overall. Also, the Under is 7-1-1 ATS the L9 Week 11 games for the Eagles and the Under is 7-2 ATS in the L9 Philadelphia games overall. The Eagles are 2-7 O/U—a strong Under team—while Tampa Bay Totals are 5-4 . The last time these two met, the Eagles won 23-21 in Tampa Bay in 2012 with the Total falling under the 47½ while in the last meeting here in the City of Brotherly Love and Robot Killers, Philadelphia won 33-14 and the game went Over the 41½ Total.

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Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears
TV: CBS, Directv 706, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
Weather: Mainly Sunny, 29°, WNW 11 mph, 57% Humidity
Point Spread: Bears -1 (YouWager)
Lowest Total in Market: 41 (Many places)
Consensus Total in Market: 41
Highest: 41½ (Station Casinos, Treasure Island)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Under is 7-3 in the Chicago Bears L10 games at Soldier Field in Chicago and the Bears have slightly skewed to the Under this season, going 4-5 0/u while the Denver Broncos—with possibly the best Defense in the NFL— have proven to be an Under team with a 3-5-1 ATS Totals O/U record and a strong 8-1 ATS 1st Quarter Unders Total mark which finally saw an Over last Sunday in Denver’s Loss to the Chiefs in Colorado. A shiny 6 of the L7 games in this somewhat infrequent series have seen just 29 points or Less (23, 71, 29, 29, 26, 29) and half of the meetings (from 1990-2011) went to OT. Keep this in mind for your NFL picks.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
TV: CBS, NFL RedZone, 4:o5 p.m. EST/1:05 p.m. PST
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 75°, SW 5 to 10 mph, 41% Humidity
Point Spread: Chiefs -3 (The Greek)
Lowest Total in Market: 44 (Pinnacle)
Consensus Total in Market: 44 and 44½
Highest Total in Market: 45 (Wynn Las Vegas, CG Technology)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Under is 12-3 ATS in the L15 Chiefs games in Week 11 while last season in this AFC West series, the Chiefs won 19-7 in Week 17 as a 3-point favorite, covering ATS, while in this meeting in San Diego, Kansas City also won by 3, this time as 3-point underdogs, 23-20, with both games going Under the posted Total although the 4 previous meetings all went Over the Total with Final Scores totaling 51, 79, 44 and 57 points.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
TV: CBS, Directv 712, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. EST/1:25 a.m. PST
Weather: Mainly Sunny, 35°, SW 12 mph, 50% Humidity
Point Spread: Pick ‘em to Vikings -1 (The Greek)
Lowest Total in Market: 44
Consensus Total in Market: 44
Highest Total in Market: 45 (Sportingbet)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Vikings have been the strongest Under team in the NFL to date, oing 1-7-1 ATS O/U heading in here while Green Bay has also been a very strong Under team with a 3-6 O/U Totals ATS mark. Last year when these Upper Midwestern rivals locked horns, the Packers won here at TCF Bank Stadium, 24-21 in a game which went Under the posted Total of 49½ and with Jordy Nelson out, Eddie Lacy (Questionable) and Aaron Rodgers hobbled, this one may be more of a chess match with Green Bay really needing the Win at TCF Bank Stadium (FieldTurf) in Minneapolis. The Over is 8-3 ATS the L11 Packers games against the NFC North while the Under is 7-1 ATS the L8 Vikings games inter-division. But the big Trend here is the Over being 11-4 ATS the L15 meetings in this series, although this seems like a good Under spot with so much on the line and both teams skewing to the Under (13-4-1 ATS) so far this Regular Season. Pick: Under 45 (Sportingbet)

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
TV: FOX, Directv 715, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. EST/1:25 p.m. PST
Weather: Sunny, 47°, N 4 mph, 75% Humidity
Point Spread: Seahawks -13 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 40
Consensus Total in Market: 40 and 40½
Highest Total in Market: 41 (Station Casinos)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Under seems to be the look here in terms of the Trends. The Under is 6-2 ATS the L8 San Francisco games played on FieldTurf (CenturyLink Field) and the Under is 22-8 the L30 49ers games against the NFC West. And, the Under is also 10-4 ATS the L14 Seahawks games versus the NFC West including hitting in the two meetings last season. In this game in Washington state, the Seahawks won 17-7 and the game went easily Under the posted Total of 38 here in Seattle while in this meeting in The City By The City By The Bay (Santa Clara), Seattle rolled to a 19-3 Win and that one also went way Under the posted Total of 40. The Under os 4-0-1 ATS in the L5 meetings between these two teams including an NFC Playoffs meeting in 2013 in Seattle which pushed the 40 Total (Seattle 23-17). And with Blaine Gabbert going up an angry Seahawks D in a must-win situation, Niners TDs will be scarce if they are even scored. Pick: Under 41 (Station Casinos)

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals
TV: NBC, 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST
Weather: Mainly Sunny, 78°, E 7 mph, 31% Humidity
Point Spread: Cardinals -3 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 47½ (The Greek)
Consensus Total in Market: 48
Highest Total in Market: 48½ (YouWager.eu, Bookmaker)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Under is 8-3 ATS the L11 Bengals games while the Over is 8-2-1 in the L11 Cardinals games and 8-2 ATS the 10 Arizona games overall. The last time these two teams played, the Bengals won and covered laying 4 points in 2011 in Cincinnati, 23-16, while in the last meeting here in Glendale (suburban Phoenix) in 2007, the host Cardinals won 35-27 as the game flew Over the posted 48½ closing Total. With so many great skill players on the football field (Fitzgerald, Brown, Johnson, Green, Bernard, Jones) and QB's Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton slinging the pigskin, this one should rocket Over. Pick: Over 47½ (The Greek)

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Monday, November 23, 2015
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

TV: ESPN, Directv 206, 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST
Weather Forecast: Clear Skies, 24°, Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph, 60% Humidity
Point Spread: Patriots -7½ (5Dimes)
Lowest Total in Market: 48 (Pinnacle)
Consensus Total in Market: 48½
Highest Total in Market: 48½ (Almost everywhere)
Totals Trends, Thoughts: Hello! 24° is really flippin’ Cold all of a sudden for an NFL game and hands and feet and the football are greatly affected at this well-below Freezing (24°) temperature forecast for Foxborough, Massachusetts on Monday night. When these two AFC East rivals met last year, the Bills won 17-9 in this meeting here in New England in Week 17 as 5-point underdogs but it’s important to note that the Patriots had already clinched Home-field advantage in the AFC and that Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick obviously rested key starters, so even though this went well Under, it can be avoided. In the meeting at Ralph Wilson in Buffalo, New England rolled 37-22 in a game which went well Over the posted 44 Total. The Under is a solid 17-8 in the Bills L25 games overall while the Over is 7-3-1 ATS the L11 Buffalo games played here in Week 11. The Over is 5-2-1 ATS in the L8 Patriots games played in Week 11 while probably the biggest and most significant Trend here also points toward the Over with the Over 7-2 ATS the L9 in this series including that meaningless “nobody cares” Under in Week 7 last season. The Patriots and Bills are both 5-4 O/U this season heading in here.

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NFL WEEK 11 FREE TOTALS PICKS: Raiders-Lions Over 47½ (BetOnline), Cowboys-Dolphins Under 47½ (Pinnacle), Rams-Ravens Under 42 -129 (bet365), Jets-Texans Under 44½ (YouWager.eu), Packers-Vikings Under 45 (Sportingbet), 49ers-Seahawks Under 41 (Station Casinos), Bengals-Cardinals Over 47½ (The Greek)

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