Total the Best Bet for Sunday Night's Packers vs. Saints

Jeff Grant

Thursday, October 23, 2014 2:32 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2014 2:32 PM GMT

New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham is beat up, which is a key factor to consider when formulating a pick on the betting total against Green Bay Sunday night.

R-E-L-A-X
Aaron Rodgers told the Green Bay fan base to relax after the team got off to a 1-2 start, which is important to consider when looking over the NFL betting lines, as he’s thrown 13 touchdowns and just a single interception in a current 4-0 SUATS run.

The Packers are capable of extending their current win streak, as they’ve compiled a 21-6 SU record when playing on Sunday nights, including a 9-4 mark under head coach Mike McCarthy.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 0-4 SUATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, with the UNDER going 3-1 in that situation.

 

Home Sweet Home
New Orleans has fallen into a pattern of winning at home and losing on the road, but three of its four losses have come by three or fewer points, including a 24-23 setback to the Detroit Lions in Week 7.

The Saints have gone 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome with Sean Payton on the sidelines, which is one of the more impressive betting trends of the year, but they’ll need Jimmy Graham to provide a spark.

NFL handicappers will find that the franchise is 3-0 SUATS in its last three games as favorites of three or fewer points at this venue.

 

Winning in October
The Packers are dangerous underdogs in this matchup, as they’ve captured 16 of their last 17 games in the month of October, especially with Rodgers under center in a primetime affair.

Green Bay has scored 25-plus points in eight of its last nine appearances on this primetime telecast, as its perennial Pro Bowl quarterback prepares to face a defense that ranks 28th in the league in allowing 270.5 passing yards per game.

 

Running the Football
Saints signal-caller Drew Brees has dropped three of his five career starts versus the Packers, which is a bit surprising due to tallying 14 touchdowns and two interceptions in that situation.

Brees and Payton will need to try and keep Rodgers off the field in this affair, especially with Graham dealing with a sore shoulder that caused him to finish without a catch last week against the Lions.

I expect both teams to run the football in this high-profile matchup, with the Saints No. 1 weapon ailing, while the Packers will want to slow down the pass rush on the other side.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their top NFL picks, as the UNDER is 7-5 in the Packers’ last 12 games with a number of 49.5 or higher.

NFL Pick: Under 56 at Pinnacle Sports

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