Top Week 4 NFL Picks for Sunday's Betting Ticket

Jason Lake

Saturday, October 3, 2015 5:56 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 3, 2015 5:56 PM GMT

Hurricane Joaquin is picking up steam as it heads for the Northeast coast. Looks like a rainy Sunday, and a great chance to add the UNDER to our NFL picks for Week 4.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 3: 13-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 7-9 Total

As you can see by the above record, we're doing quite well with our NFL picks against the spread. The total? Hovering around .500 as usual. There isn't a lot of profit margin to be had in most of these totals – except when there is. A little bit of rain can go a long way toward cashing in the UNDER, and wouldn't you know it, there's a hurricane off the East Coast right now. You may be experiencing its effects as you read this.

With that in mind, let's put on our anoraks and go storm chasing, before Hurricane Joaquin does a number on the NFL odds. First stop: Washing Town (huh huh).

 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
This is why you make your picks early, folks. The total for this game opened at 48 points, and we're already down to 44 as we go to press. Even without the weather, betting the UNDER on this matchup makes sense; Washington's offense is stuck in neutral with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and Philadelphia's offense just hasn't gotten off the ground with Sam Bradford at the helm.

We're still interested in the UNDER, though. The NFL was considering moving this game to Ford Field, but the league decided on Friday to stay put. Landover might avoid getting soaked in the end – there's a 40-percent chance of rain at kick-off. Crosswinds approaching 20 mph are also in the forecast. Given how much “upside” there is for even worse conditions at the Fed, we'll be turning our umbrellas upside-down Sunday.

NFL Pick: Take UNDER 44 (–106) at Marathon

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837049, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (6:30 a.m. ET, CBS)
Sadly, everyone else in the hurricane's apparent path is either on the road or playing indoors, so let's fly across the pond, where another disaster might be about to unfold. The Dolphins are 1-2 SU and ATS this year, scoring just 51 points in three games – last in the AFC. Joe Philbin could indeed be the first coach fired this year if Miami doesn't win this game.

We almost had the Jets (2-1 SU and ATS) as one of our nominees for Best Value on the Board in Week 4. They were 1-point underdogs at Wembley before moving to –1.5 at press time, with 61 percent consensus on Gang Green. Favorites are 7-4 ATS since the London games started in 2007, and according to Football Outsiders, the Jets rank No. 9 overall in efficiency (No. 22 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 24 special teams) going into Week 4, with Miami way down the list at No. 26 overall (No. 26 offense, No. 27 defense, No. 16 special teams). Bally Joey, pranged his kite right in the how's-your-father.

NFL Pick: Take the Jets –2.5 (–125) at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837006, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here