Top Week 3 NFL Picks for Sunday

Swinging Johnson

Friday, September 25, 2015 11:34 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 11:34 PM GMT

Last week saw our handicapper go 2-2 in his NFL picks but he is vowing to do much better as he zeroes in on the NFL odds and looks for a pair of sharp opportunities to cash in Week 3.

2015 NFL Record (5-3 ATS)

Those who follow me understand I write two weekly NFL picks columns each week, appearing Thursday and Saturday, in which I include two picks in each article. My season record is indicative of the combined picks in each of these columns. In my earlier article this week I revealed that the Houston Texans -6 (-120) and over 47 ½ in the Steelers/Rams were my early plays but now it is time to turn our attention to the prevailing NFL odds and see what looks good now that we’re closer to kickoff.

 

Bengals vs. Ravens
I went on record in the preseason picking Cincinnati to win the AFC North and though we are a long way away from finding out if that prediction will bear fruit we do know this edition of the Bengals looks promising based on the early returns. The Cats are not only undefeated but have covered the number against both the Raiders and the Chargers. Conversely, the Ravens look dazed and confused defensively without Terrell Suggs. Baltimore has dropped their first two games, both on the road, and return home to face a divisional rival after losing to the Raiders in Oakland last week.

I am not seeing much out Baltimore while Cincinnati has dazzled in the early going. In addition, let us not forget that the Ravens have another divisional showdown looming on Thursday night with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I’m not sure what Baltimore did to anger the NFL scheduling gods but let’s just hope they don’t riot. Here are a few stats to bolster my contention that the Cincinnati Bengals are the right side in this one.

- Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

- Ravens are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

- Ravens are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North.

- Bengals are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

- Bengals have won four of the last five between the two clubs.

I am convinced Geno Atkins, who looks as though he has returned to form after a disappointing 2014 campaign, will give Flacco a run for his money because I don’t see the Ravens running on this Cincinnati defense. If Derek Carr could drop 351 yards and three touchdowns on the Ravens as he did last week, it’s not a stretch to believe Andy Dalton, with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert as primary targets, will do at least the same.

NFL Pick: Play the Bengals +3 (-130) at Bovada

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Colts vs. Titans
The Colts will get their first victory of the year in Week 3 and it won’t be close. Andrew Luck did not turn into Ryan Leaf over the summer and his troubles will be over once he torches the secondary of the Tennessee Titans. But as much as Luck has looked like a deer in the headlights let’s not forget that his offensive line is downright…offensive. Luck has been getting hammered and to blame him for the team’s travails up until this point is absurd.

This week Luck will not have to contend with the Jets’ defense, one that is light years better than the Titans. He will have more time to throw and won’t have to face Darrelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie suffocating his targets like he did last week. On the flipside Tennessee cannot rely on running on the Colts because although Indy has a subpar secondary they can stop the run. Therefore the rookie Marcus Mariota will be forced to drop back early and often to keep pace with what I believe Andrew Luck will accomplish on the scoreboard.

- Colts are 13-2 against the spread off a loss and 14-4 ATS in divisional games under Luck.

- Colts are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss.

- Titans are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog.

I know this play reeks of square biz but the public isn’t always wrong and I am more than happy to include Indianapolis as one of my NFL picks laying only a field goal.

NFL Pick: Play the Colts -3 at JustBet

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