Top Week 12 NFL Picks: Best Total, Spread & Moneyline Bets

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 5:47 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 5:47 PM GMT

In this weekly column we sift through the early NFL odds board in search of value NFL picks. Find out which games offer the best SU, ATS and total bets, respectively, at the sports betting exchange.

Week 12 NFL Betting Preview
The upcoming week serves up several games that practically leap off the page as sure bets in prominent NFL betting markets – be it as the best SU pick, best ATS pick or best total NFL pick – of the entire NFL odds board. Below we've selected one game for each category that we fancy to deliver.
 

Best SU Pick: Colts (home) over Jaguars
As far as straight up betting goes on week 12's NFL odds board, the game between AFC South rivals Colts and Jaguars practically leaps off the page as a no-brainer. Unequivocally, Andrew Luck is not going to lose to Blake Bortles, unless a parallel universe inhabited by wildly optimistic Jaguars' fans exists would such a fanciful outcome occur. Colts are 3-2 SU at home this season but their losses have come to good teams such as Eagles, Steelers and Patriots. The glaring stat: Jaguars are 0-5 SU on the road, 3-10 SU since 2013.

Naturally, seeing as a Colts win is as sure as the sun is to rise in the morning, the NFL betting value is debatable. It's most likely that the Colts are going to be priced as the prohibitive runaway favourites. Nevertheless, the absolute certainty of this clash makes it the best Moneyline option on offer for this week's NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Colts SU

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Best ATS Pick: Cardinals +6.5 over Seahawks
By the numbers, the Cardinals are not only the best team in the NFL but they are also the most consistent performers against the NFL betting spread. Cardinals boast a 9-1 SU record and an 8-2 ATS record through the 2014 NFL season. They lead the NFC playoff race, ahead of established preseason favourites – Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, to name a few – yet still they are being snubbed by online sports betting exchanges across the board. When will the Cardinals get the credit that is due?

Of course, preconceived notions are hard to let go. After all, the Cardinals are set to face only the defending champions Seattle Seahawks and the 12th man, a notoriously tough nut to crack. Betting against the Seahawks at home would mean breaking with established tradition. But NFL bettors must consider this season's Seahawks alone and not past instalments. Reality is the Seahawks leave much to be desired this season, including on home turf. They are just 1-5-0 ATs in their last six games; the only cover coming at the expense of the Giants in week 10 NFL betting. At home, they are just 3-2 ATS this season, which includes the Raiders (13-point pups) flying the  coop with a cover.

Consider the Seahawks are inconsistent performers against the spread while the Cardinals are consistently bankable against the spread. In their last five games the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS, including the 14-6 win over the Lions in week 11 all while playing without their starter Carson Palmer. If that doesn't say: no Palmer, no problem, what would? Put another way, the Cardinals are hot right now; hence, as the +6.5-point underdogs against the spread, they loom tempting as the best ATS pick in Week 12.

NFL Picks: Cardinals +6.5

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Best Total Pick: Packers vs. Vikings To Go OVER 48.5
All things being considered, this is a rather low total of 48.5-points. Packers are 7-3 SU with a 10.5-point margin of victory. It's true they've faced some stiff opposition on the road – they are only 2-3 SU on their travels. Considering the quality of the teams they lost to – Seahawks, Saints and Lions – the word "struggle" seems a bit much. What's more, they are coming up against the subpar Vikings in week 12 NFL betting, a side they beat 42-10 at Lambeau in week 5 NFL betting. Seriously, this has to be a steal when it comes to selecting the best NFL pick in total betting.

Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the league right now with a league leading 120.1 passer rating and league leading 8.78 yards per passing attempt. He has 28 touchdowns to his credit through ten games, which is an average of 2.8 TDs per game so far. The rate at which he's been firing at lately however his TD count is sure to swell.

In the last two games, Rodgers has accounted for a staggering 9 touchdowns, six at the expense of the Bears and three at the expense of the Eagles on Sunday. Both those games featured 50-plus points for the Packers alone – 55-14 over the Bears and 53-20 over the Eagles. Granted those lopsided wins came at Lambeau, but there's no reason to assume that momentum will not spill forward. By the numbers, the Packers are 9-1-0 in over-under betting this season – the only anomaly was their lacklustre account was against the Lions (away) earlier this season, after which Rodgers uttered those famous letters: R-E-L-A-X.

NFL Picks: Over 48.5

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