The NFL season is winding down, and to extrapolate every inch of value we can, let’s take a look at some prop NFL odds for value. I have already released my player props for Week 15, but here are my three favorite team props for this week’s NFL picks.
Cowboys vs. Eagles 1st to 10 points
Sunday’s Night Football is going to be intense, and I expect a much closer game than what we saw on Thanksgiving. Instead of having a short week to work with this time around, the Cowboys are coming off of some long rest after back-to-back Thursday games, and I think it might help them on the road. The Cowboys’ offense should continue their dominance after blowing up the Bears in Week 14, and with Philly’s defense almost as bad as Chicago’s, I expect the Cowboys to get off to a hot start. Not only do I think they will win/cover this game as +3 NFL odds underdogs, I see them getting to 10 points first. If they do, the NFL odds are very nice at +110, which is way too high for a team like Dallas in a close game like this. Other teams with +100 or higher odds in the race to the points are much bigger dogs than the Cowboys are at +3. Take the Boys to get to 10 points first.
NFL Pick: Cowboys 1st to 10 points (+110)
Jets vs. Titans O/U 4.5 touchdowns
This is by far my favorite prop of the week, and with two teams who struggle on offense going up against one another, I see no way that there are more than four touchdowns scored in this game. The NFL odds know this too. Right now the under is only at -120, and I think it’s still one of the best props of the week. I would be surprised if both of these teams got out of the teens in scoring. The Titans’ defense isn’t great, but at home against Geno Smith, they could have some success. The Jets on the other hand should feast against the Titans’ offensive line, and it should help keep the score low in this one. As long as the game isn’t a blowout and susceptible to some garbage time touchdowns, I see the under being the best of my prop picks this week.
My Pick: UNDER 4.5 touchdowns (-120)
Dolphins vs. Patriots O/U 3.5 FGs
One of the bigger games that no one is talking about is the AFC East showdown between the Dolphins and Patriots. Around this time last season, the Dolphins had one of the bigger collapses in my recent memory, and they could once again be headed down that path if they aren’t competitive in this game. They likely won’t win against one of the better teams in the league right now, but they could keep it close, and if it is, we should see a ton of kicking. The Patriots are the best field goal kicking team in the NFL right now, and Caleb Sturgis and the Fins aren’t too far behind. Sturgis has made five field goals in the last two games, and Stephen Gostkowski hit all three of his kicks last week for the Patriots. I see a bunch of field goals in this one, so take the over and add it to your NFL picks.
My Pick: OVER 3.5 FGs (-110)