It’s another week of NFL action and after a two out of three night on Thanksgiving, I’m back to try and add more profits to your NFL Picks. All three of these team props are courtesy of bet365 sportsbooks, and these NFL Odds look like nothing but value.
This is likely the game of the week, and with the Packers as favorites. Dax and I have decided that the Patriots are the way to go in this one taking points. However because they are taking points here, it’s easy to find some extra value in the prop NFL Odds. For instance, the race to the points is favoring the Packers, but with their defense, even being at home won’t save them from one of the hottest offenses in the NFL right now. The Patriots’ defense however is good enough to hold down Green Bay, and at +100, you’re not going to find a better value on the Patriots this week. I see them running the ball a lot, controlling the time of possession, and using Tom Brady to fire downfield whenever possible. Look for the Pats to control the game early on.
Free NFL Pick: Patriots 1st to 10 points (+100)
Giants vs. Jaguars O/U 23.5 points
This one may seem like a lock for the over, but slow down, cowboy! The Giants are on the road in Jacksonville this week, a team that obviously isn’t going anywhere this season. However that also means they have nothing to lose, and I bet they are looking at this game as one they could very easily win if they play well. The key for the Jags will be on defense, and if the Giants play like they have on the road this season, there is no way they are getting to 24 or more points. On the season the Giants are only averaging 19 points per game. If you take away their big blowout win over the Skins in Week 4 where they scored 45 points, they are only averaging 13 points per game on the road. With the Jaguars’ defense playing better, I don’t think Eli Manning and company are going to score more than 20-21 points here. On top of all of this, the under has exceptional value at +100! I don’t know what bet365 is thinking with this one, but take the under and immediately add it to your NFL Picks!
Free NFL Pick: Giants UNDER 23.5 (+100)
Browns vs. Bills O/U 4.5 sacks
Hopefully there won’t be several feet of snow between tonight and tomorrow afternoon, however there is some weather concerns in Buffalo this week, however it looks to be light snow and rain. Either way, that’s not the greatest atmosphere to have a big scoring game in, especially with these two defenses. The Browns haven’t been great on defense recently, and they haven’t been able to get much pressure on the quarterback. They only have 18 sacks on the year, but the Bills could give up one or two here. Since he took over the starting job, Kyle Orton has been sacked 21 times, which is as much or more than some guys who have been starting all season. On the year the Bills have sacked the QB 27 times, and between the two, in the slippery weather, look for the two QBs to be going down behind the line of scrimmage a lot.
Free NFL Pick: OVER 4.5 sacks (-105)