Top Value Plays Worth Adding to Your Week 9 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 8:58 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 8:58 PM UTC

It is the exact midpoint of the NFL season and sportsbooks' NFL odds are as sharp as ever, but still manageable enough this time of the year not to be heavily weighted on good or bad teams.

Last week in terms of value, I took choose two favorites at -3, with the belief one or both would go down and at worst I would get a push. Turns out the oddsmakers early choices were dead on New Orleans and Baltimore, but I waited and picked up the Saints at -2 and I hope you did to on Sunday morning. This gave me the odd record of 1-0-2 for NFL picks officially here, with Vikings late winner. Let's move on to Week 9 and seek another winning week with these value plays.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of WagerWeb.


Back on Minnesota Against Dreaded Rams
Call me stubborn, but I am not a believer in St. Louis, despite losing to them here the past two weeks. Though the comparisons between St. Louis and Minnesota are justified by style of play, the Vikings have shown the ability to win close games and reeled off six straight covers. While that might be a warning sign to some, at least this season, this tells me the defense will keep Minnesota hanging around and they have emerging play-makers like Stefon Diggs. Props to the Rams for winning three of four games, but get them on the road in a non-division contest and they are only 3-7 ATS in last 10. St. Louis also fits one my systems this time of year, as road teams off a home blowout win by 21 points or more, in weeks 5 through 9, are merely 15-40 ATS the past decade. With the Vikes down from -3 to -2.5, that adds real value backing them for sports picks.

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Steelers Back on Track Against Visiting Oakland
It was clearly evident to any football handicapper or someone just watching, Ben Roethlisberger probably came back one week too early. I agree it made sense if he could play against division rival Cincinnati at home to close AFC North gap, it was worth a try, but his usual lack of mobility was quite evident.

With how Oakland has been performing in recent weeks, Pittsburgh has sunk from -6 to -4.5, accompanied with the loss of Le'Veon Bell. However, the Steelers have everything necessary for one the best passing offenses in the league with receivers Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton, along with TE Heath Miller, whose role will be expanded. And while RB DeAngelo Williams is not Bell, his skill set is still above average.

With Oakland 31st against the pass and 4-18 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog, the Steelers definitely have value if you scoop them up early enough.

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Denver Capitalizes on Indianapolis' Miscues
Only Andrew Luck knows how injured he really is, but there are other reasons for his frankly terrible play. Luck is playing behind a lamentable offensive line, which has altered his thinking process and made his more of an unnecessary risk-taker, along be being hesitant at the same time. But all the mistakes in principle are not uncommon. As a rookie he combined for 27 interceptions and fumbles, last year it was 24 and he's on pace for 28 this season on a worse football team.

This does not excuse Luck, rather makes one realize any quarterback is going to play worse under continual duress, which is something the Denver No.1 defense can bring. After holding Aaron Rodgers to career-low in passing yards, I wonder what a jumpy Luck will do facing a ferocious and unrelenting pass rush and secondary who can cover his receivers like a large tarp.

Granted, the Colts have great record over Denver with Luck or with former QB Peyton Manning, but when comparing the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Broncos at -3 sure seem like a bargain.

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