Top Value Plays Worth Adding to Your Week 16 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 7:27 PM GMT

Another football season is winding down and at least for me, these are the sharpest NFL odds of the season from the sportsbooks, making this a real challenge for NFL picks.

Looking at the odds of every single contest, I can make a case the final score could essentially land right on the oddsmakers number, except of course those that have half points like Pittsburgh at 10.5.

That is not to say I cannot find winners, I certainly have in winning four of past five weeks for this article and video, including last Sunday's 3-0 sweep. These week's NFL picks are not so much about value, but choosing the right side and I feel strongly about another winning week.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of YouWager.

 

Minnesota (-6) Further Limits Giants Options
The New York Giants would have won the NFC East weeks ago if the NFL had changed the time of games from 60 to 58 minutes. New York has held leads or been tied in the fourth quarter six times and found a way to end up on the short end of the scoreboard each time. Having the worst pass defense in the NFL really shows up late in games when opposing teams have to throw. Next up is a trip to Minnesota, who has put away teams late in games more often than not. With Odell "the headhunter" Beckham Jr. likely suspended for this game, there goes 40 percent of the touchdowns Eli Manning has tossed this season. I realize the Giants will get some run from other football handicappers in this spot, but Beckham or not, the Vikings have enough playmakers to expose the league's worst defense. Minnesota by 10.

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Arizona (-4) Proves They Are Better Than Green Bay
Green Bay still has plenty to play for besides the division title, which will be settled next week. Two Packers victories and two Arizona setbacks lifts Green Bay to No.2 seed and bye week. However, I do not see that happening when looking at these two teams. Last week was perfect example as to where these teams are mentally. Green Bay won by 10 on the road in Oakland on a rainy day and all the players talked about after the game was not playing up to capabilities and other elements they wondered about. Arizona was thrilled after complete game victory over Philadelphia and believes they are peaking with eight wins in a row. Besides attitude, the most important element in this contest is big plays and Arizona averages 8.4 yards per pass attempt (1st in NFL) and Aaron Rodgers and Pack are 6.3 (27th). The Packers are 1-8 ATS when they allow eight or more yards pass per attempt. Cardinals by 9.

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Kansas City (-12.5) Train Rolls Over Cleveland
The K.C. express is rollin' down the tracks at 8-0 and 7-1 ATS. With this many points, this could hardly be viewed as value play unless you prefer the underdog. Nevertheless, in the Chiefs last 10 contests, they have given up only 13.2 points per game, easily the best in the NFL. No matter who has played quarterback for Cleveland, there is little indication they will score more than that at Arrowhead Stadium. While the Kansas City offense has not always been dynamic, in combination with defensive scores, they have scored 29 or more points in six of last eight outings and the Browns permit 29.4 PPG on the road, making the Chiefs a winner by 16 or more points.

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