Top Value Plays & Trends for Your Week 3 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 6:26 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015 6:26 PM UTC

This will not be an easy week to break down the sportsbooks' NFL odds as a football handicapper. Some long-term injuries are affecting quarterbacks and how they respond will matter.

Unless you really feel strongly about a certain position on one of these games, this definitely limits your potential choices for football picks. In truth, this just means you have to work a little harder to find the best value on plays, which is certainly possible. Coming off a 3-0 week, I will be attempting to duplicate or at least have a winning week with this action.

The present listed betting odds are courtesy of WagerWeb.


Baltimore in Favorable Situation on Multiple Levels
Though John Harbaugh and his coaches knew that two road games to Denver and Oakland would be quite an undertaking, they had to feel they would come back home at 1-1 and build from that point. Unfortunately for the Ravens, they were defenseless against the Raiders and allowed late touchdown to start 0-2.

With Cincinnati 2-0, a loss to the Bengals would seemingly all but eliminate Baltimore from winning the AFC North even before October arrived. This will be a division game that is now packed with desperation and it will provide the Ravens the right amount of want to cage the Bengals. For NFL picks, this thought process is further supported by the fact that home favorites who outscored opponents by four or more points per game last season after scoring 30 points or more in the last game are 38-13 ATS during the first month of the season.

NFL Pick: Ravens -3 at Pinnacle

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Pittsburgh Has Too Much Offense for St. Louis
I was ecstatic to see the NFL odds on Pittsburgh drop from -2.5 to -1 on the nearby shores of the Mississippi River. Evidently, the Rams' 8-6 ATS record under coach Jeff Fisher as a home underdog and the notion that the St. Louis front four can pressure Ben Roethlisberger into errant throws has football bettors thinking upset.

To me, this only increases the value on the Steelers, who welcome back a hungry Le'Veon Bell from suspension and match him with D'Angelo Williams. Let's not forget that Big Ben is directing a passing attack that is averaging 349 yards a game. Though we agree that the Pittsburgh defense is not going to remind anyone of the Steel Curtain days, St. Louis will most likely have to throw to match points and they're only averaging 205 YPG via the forwards pass. Make it Steelers by 7.

NFL Pick: Steelers -1 at BetOnline

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Arizona's Distain and Motivation Carries Them Past 49ers
If there is one team Arizona fans and players hate, it is San Francisco. They have always had little use for the real or imagined attitude of the 49ers, believing this was a smug group of fans and players and had no use for Jim Harbaugh either. While new Niners coach Jim Tomsula is relatively faceless compared to a few of his predecessors, the Cardinals are now the favorite and want to take full advantage of the situation.

While it was true San Francisco was in a difficult scheduling situation in Pittsburgh, nevertheless, their pass defense was sliced and diced for 369 yards and with coach Bruce Arian's vertical pass offense led by QB Carson Palmer, it could be another long afternoon for San Fran with a suspect secondary and lack of pass rush. Look for the Redbirds to move to 15-4 ATS as home favorites under Arians.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -7 at 5Dimes

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