Top Value Plays to Maximize Profit of Your Week 15 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 7:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015 7:50 PM UTC

3 weeks to go in the season and this is the first week, in my opinion, the sportsbooks are really adjusting the NFL odds to make you think twice about making NFL Picks on certain favorites or dogs.

That does not mean there still isn't some excellent value plays for NFL Picks, quite the contrary and I easily found a trio I liked. Last week was my first losing week in a month for this article and accompanying video, but I really do feel confident this will be bounce back week.

The present listed NFL Odds are courtesy of SBR's Live Odds Board.


Minnesota (-5.5) Runs All Over Chicago
For extended periods of time Minnesota actually outplayed Arizona on the road as silly 10-point underdogs, but losing the turnover battle 3-0 did the Vikings in. Minnesota has lost two in a row and three of four, but is a good spot at a affordable price. Chicago has also dumped three of four and the last two were bad news, as both San Francisco and Washington picked up their first road wins of the year. The Bears run defense was playing fairly well but in the last month has been gouged for 141.7 yards a contest and we know with Adrian Peterson leading the league in rushing, he could have another monster game. The Vikes are 18-6 ATS after one or more losses and Chicago is 14-30 ATS away the last four weeks of the season. Minnesota by double digits for sports picks.

NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings Against the Spread
Best Line Offered: -5.5 (-103) at Pinnacle

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Arizona (-3.5) Too Good for Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Eagles might have won two straight but I am not on board. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their past four games and in those victories, 179 yards by New England and 64 by Buffalo. Philly gives off not signals of a team ready to take flight and are home underdogs in the process. No arguing about Arizona's seven-game winning streak and them having the second-best record in the NFC at 11-2. The Cardinals possess the ball for over 33 minutes a game, while the Eagles defense is on the field for over 34 minutes a contest. Being able to control the tempo with a veteran QB like Carson Palmer is important and they are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS on road, winning by 12.7 points a contest. Cards by 7.

NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals Against the Spread
Best Line Offered: -3.5 (+109) at Pinnacle

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Kansas City (-7.5) Back on Task
In terms of real value as a football handicapper, I would wait to see if you find a seven from your sportsbook or bookie, but honestly do not believe the hook will matter. As I said last week, I thought Kansas City was due for an off performance and they needed all 60 minutes to hold off San Diego 10-3 as 13.5-point favorites. With Baltimore just trying to assemble a team with all their injuries, let alone win, just do not see a close contest. During the Chiefs current seven-game winning streak they have permitted 12 points a game. Forget the 33 points Baltimore scored at Cleveland on Monday night, in their other four most recent contests, they are averaging 13.7 PPG. With K.C. 13-5 ATS as away favorites, they win by 14.

NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Against the Spread
Best Line Offered: -7.5 (+107) at Pinnacle

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