Top Value Over/Under NFL Picks for Week 7

Jeff Grant

Friday, October 17, 2014 12:59 PM GMT

A couple of early moves in the marketplace has caught the eye of our handicapper, which should have every sports bettor excited to play a pair of NFL totals in Week 7.

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Perhaps the most surprising statistics in the league through the first six weeks of the season is Carolina allowing an average of 26.2 points and 392.5 yards per game, considering it surrendered figures of 15.1 and 301.2 respectively in those categories a year ago.

The Panthers have demonstrated enough offensive firepower in the early going to overcome those numbers on the other side of the football, as they’ve put together a 3-2-1 SU and 4-2 ATS record.

NFL handicappers need to keep an eye on the injury report leading up to kickoff, as running back Jonathan Stewart (knee) and wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (concussion) are both listed as questionable.

Green Bay ranks third in the league in averaging 30.8 points at home since the start of the 2009 campaign, which is important to consider when making your NFL predictions, as that number trails only the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints.

The Packers are led by MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers, who has won 13 of his last 14 starts in October—tallying 39 touchdowns and just four interceptions over that span.

NFL Pick:  Bet Over 49.5 for your NFL Picks

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
The downward movement in this Week 7 NFL odds total isn’t a surprise from a technical standpoint, as the last 10 games in this AFC West rivalry has featured a number of 45.5 or lower.

Andy Reid has won 16 of 18 games following a bye week in his career, which is why Kansas City will want to win the time-of-possession battle in this matchup, with Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis running the football.

It’s important to point out that the Chiefs have ran the football 92 times in three road games, but they’ve managed to average just 329.0 total yards in that situation.

San Diego has scored 30 or more points four times over the course of its current five-game win streak, but it’s also taken advantage of playing the likes of the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and Oakland Raiders over that stretch.

With Philip Rivers under center, the Chargers lead the NFL in passing plays of 20 yards or more with 28, but the Chiefs stop unit has allowed the fewest completions of that type in 2014.

I expect the road underdog to play keep away from one of the hottest teams in the league, especially since it owns a major edge in terms of talent in the backfield.

NFL Pick:  Under 45 at Pinnacle

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